Put Up or Shut Up
UFC gold is once again on the line this weekend, this time in the always thrilling light heavyweight division. Light heavyweight boss, Jon “Bones” Jones puts the division strap on the line against the high level wrestling and signature taunts of the “American Gangster,”
Chael Sonnen. A fight delayed by extenuating circumstances involving an injury to Dan Henderson that saw Jones back out of the last minute replacement challenge of Sonnen, Jones gets his shot at redemption in the eyes of many fans who labeled him as “Chicken Bones” when he refused to face an opponent who, like Henderson, is another high level wrestler, only with less striking power than Hendo. Odds are heavily favoring the champion, though his image has remained tarnished to the viewpoint of a good portion of fans and media alike and because of such, would like to see Sonnen use his smothering grappling game to back up his vaunted trash talking technique and somehow pull off the upset. All that will finally be answered in the main event this Saturday night.
In the meantime, between-time, bad blood supports the main event with a showdown between
Alan Belcher and
Michael Bisping in the precursor to the title fight. Heavyweight anomaly,
Roy Nelson takes on chiseled French kickboxer,
Cheick Kongo and even the ladies get in on it when Sara McMann takes on Sheila Gaff. And so fight fans, it’s once again that time: time to fire up the grills and put the beers on ice. Here comes UFC 159!!!
Facebook Prelims
Featherweight
Steven “Super” Stiler (21-10-0) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (8-1-0)
Break out the laptops and smartphones for the inaugural fist-a-cuffs of the evening. The opening 3 bouts continue with the UFC/Facebook collaboration of preliminary action. The first of three comes out of the explosive featherweight division as up and coming prospects, Steven Siler welcomes Kurt Holobaugh to the UFC and his new weight class with hostile intentions. Former Team Miller member on The Ultimate Fighter, Steven Siler brings an experience edge both from a collective standpoint and from the position of him being a part of the UFC roster. Strikeforce convert, Kurt Holobaugh, is not only making his UFC debut, but is making the drop from lightweight to featherweight so there’s almost sure to be adjustments being made that could very well hinder his focus a bit in his pilot bout with the promotion. Each man has far more wins by submission so standing exchanges could be few and far in between, though in a weight class regarded for it’s battle diversity, a KO certainly isn’t to be dismissed from the equation, but isn’t all that likely.
Prediction: Siler by 3rd round submission
Welterweight
“The Jersey Devil” Nick Catone (9-4-0) vs. James Head (9-3-0)
Round 2 of the Facebook prelims comes courtesy of Nick Catone and James Head out of the welterweight division. Here’s a matchup of guys who are the ever growing trend of fighters who are HUGE for their weight classes. Each guy, particularly Head, are natural middleweights but make the arduous pull down to the next lowest weight class so as to better their chances of having the greatest opportunity at their dream career. Catone brings in a rather large advantage in the wrestling department, having been a former division 1 standout at Rider University which he’ll need to implement to off-set the striking blitzkrieg that’s likely to come at him in the form of the former SW Regional Golden Gloves champion. Head also owns a fair share of submission grappling titles under the tutelage of jiu jitsu ace, Rafael Lovato, Jr., so a ground attack is nothing that’ll take him out of his comfort zone, but will probably the safest game plan for Catone to follow. This is also, quite possibly, a fight for UFC survival so this one could shape up to be a real barnburner.
Prediction: Head by UD
Featherweight
Leonard “Bad Boy” Garcia (19-10-1) vs. Cody McKenzie (13-3-0)
Capping off the Facebook freebees, brawling fan favorite Leonard Garcia goes up against the clownish, but nevertheless super dangerous, Cody McKenzie. Having dropped his last 4 outings, Garcia will do what he’s always done and that’s fight like there’s no tomorrow because in his case, there may not be; at least not with his current employer if he drops a fifth straight. He’ll have all he can handle with McKenzie, who has finished all of his professional fights in the first round, mostly by submission. This is what might possibly save Garcia being as that he’s a very strong wrestler with an underrated submission game, but a more accomplished striker than his respiratory restricting opponent. In other words, Garcia has a strong enough mat game to keep him out of danger and he has a distinct advantage in a standing battle. On the other hand, McKenzie has plenty of film to watch and prepare for a wild striking style like Garcia has that leaves more than enough counter opportunities so he could maybe catch Garcia with something short and crisp, but given his background, he’ll almost surely be more apt to use those openings to bring the fight into his comfort zone on the ground.
Prediction: Garcia by 2nd round KO/TKO
FX Prelims
Bantamweight
“Kid Lightning” Bryan Caraway (17-7-0) vs. Johnny “Brutal” Bedford (19-10-1)
Ultimate Fighter alumni face off in the super fast bantamweight division in the continuation of the preliminaries as it carries over to FX. Bryan Caraway and Johnny Bedford go toe-to-toe in a battle of what is likely to be determined by the deeper of the two submission games. Both former college wrestlers, Caraway has scored over half of his professional wins via submission while Bedford has dropped the majority of his losses by limb hyperextension or respiratory cutoff. Having summed up the general backgrounds of the two fighter’s pro backgrounds in a nutshell, the mathematics are simple: Caraway needs to look to further expose the biggest hole in Bedford’s game on the ground and Bedford, having more KO finishes, should use his wrestling background to prevent being put on the mat and keep Caraway at striking distance. The outcomes are rather obvious on paper. Caraway’s chances of victory increase exponentially if the fight lands on the ground and Bedford’s chances go up if it remains standing. In the average fight, the action usually steers toward the ground at some point in time so Bedford hopefully geared himself on his submission defense. Not to dismiss the athleticism of the smaller sized weight class, don’t look for it to end quickly whichever direction it turns.
Prediction: Caraway by 3rd round submission
Women’s Bantamweight
Sara McMann (6-0-0) vs. “The German Tank” Sheila Gaff (10-4-1)
The women continue to validate their place on the elite level of the sport in the next showdown on FX. Sara McMann brings her outstanding grappling pedigree and undefeated record up against the KO power of Sheila Gaff. McMann, the 2004 Olympic Silver Medal winner in women’s freestyle wrestling and 2009 FILA Grappling World Championships Senior Women’s No-Gi Gold Medalist, has a very simple gameplan: put Sheila Gaff on the ground and bring “The German Tank” into her world. Gaff has an equally simple strategy: maintain distance and keep McMann at the end of her striking range. If Gaff can stave off the takedown attempts of McMann, she’ll force McMann into a very unfamiliar and uncomfortable scenario. McMann likely can’t compete with Gaff in the striking game and if caught, will probably get added to Gaff’s unfortunate statistics of KO victims. However, if McMann closes the distance, it’s going to get real nasty, real fast for the karate green belt. If McMann keeps her 0 in tact, she’ll likely become the most viable challenger for champion, Ronda Rousey after her next title defense, granted that she, too, comes out the victor. With the comparative grappling backgrounds, she looks to pose a serious threat to the supremacy of the champion. First thing’s first, though: get past the ominous specter facing her this Saturday night.
Prediction: McMann by 2nd round submission
Light Heavyweight
Gian Villante (10-3-0) vs. Ovince St. Preux (12-5-0)
Strikeforce vets make their presence felt in the next throwdown with big boys, Gian Villante and Ovince St. Preux bringing a whole lot of athleticism to the Octagon. Both are former high level football players who’ve found their niche in the world of sport combat. Each combatant is also riding a high level of confidence, coming in off of wins, with Villante on a 3 fight winning streak. Villante is also a training partner of high level grappler and the next middleweight title challenger, Chris Weidman so his education in submission grappling is of a very high level so don’t look to him succumbing to any locks or chokes. St. Preux has been in with a slightly higher level of fighter in his career thus far, having gone the distance with former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion, Gegard Mousasi, so his cage saavy could give him a bit of an edge especially if the fight should reach the deep waters and he carries slightly more power in his hands. With his grappling sessions with Weidman, it might be in Villante’s best interest to try to close the distance and put St. Preux on his back and make him more susceptible to tapping the floor while St. Preux would probably be better served to work a tight striking strategy to dissuade any takedown attempts and make Villante dance to his tune. St. Preux, however, is the recipient of the 2009 Sports Illustrated Submission of the Year so the jiu jitsu game is far from foreign territory to him.
Prediction: St. Preux by 1st round KO/TKO
Lightweight
Rustam “Tiger” Khabilov (15-1-0) vs. Yancey Medeiros (9-0-0)
Next up is two gladiators who have impressive records with the once defeated Rustam Khabilov facing off with the undefeated Yancey Medeiros. The pedigree is definitely in Khabilov’s favor being a former world combat sambo champion and the longer professional resume, but Medeiros brings his own bag of tricks into the mix which includes a higher KO percentage. Taking place at lightweight, it’s highly probable to be a dogfight which equals pure awesomeness for we fans. Should the fight hit the mat, Medeiros will have to look out diligently for your standard chokes and armbars. Sambo practitioners are well renowned for their leg submissions so the traps on the ground are going to be at every turn, almost literally. For Medeiros, finding sparring partners who can mimic such a style is no easy search so for his benefit, let’s hope his team was able to accomplish that otherwise, the preparation for the Russian might’ve fallen short.
For Khabilov, he’ll have to work strenuously on his standup since his natural inclination is going to lean toward grappling, though he’s seen his fair share of punches and kicks in his career in combat sambo and professional MMA alike. If his opponent dedicated as much time to submission defense as he probably did, Khabilov should’ve been preparing for the striking attack equally as rigorous.
Prediction: Khabilov by UD
Main Card
Lightweight
Jim Miller (22-4-0) vs. Pat “Bam Bam” Healy (31-15-0)
Next up is a fighter’s fight, once again in the lightweight division.
Jim Miller and Pat Healy lock horns for the next step up the lightweight ladder. This one tapers off pretty evenly on paper with both men having a slew of many of the sport’s grittiest warriors on their impressive resumes. Miller looks to be the slight favorite having dropped only 4 of his pro fights and all to those atop the lightweight division, one being reigning champion, Benson Henderson. Also, Miller is the owner of a BJJ black belt under Jamie Cruz and 12 of his big wins have come by submission with only 3 coming by way of KO. Confidence shouldn’t be a factor since Miller has won 9 of his last 11 and Healy is riding a 6 fight winning streak.
From Healy’s standpoint, he’ll curry the advantage in the striking department with 7 of his wins coming via KO/TKO, but he’ll still be well armed on the ground against his opponent’s vaunted submission game. Healy is the proud owner of 15 submission victories. This is one of those “you pick ’em” battles, but the safe money says that if it’s a standing war, Healy is the more deadly of the two and if it goes to the ground, Miller is going to be predator to Healy’s prey.
Prediction: Miller by 3rd round submission
Light Heavyweight
“Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis (10-1-0, 1NC) vs. Vinny “Pezao” Magalhaes (11-5-0, 1NC)
Taking us one step close to the main event on the top billing of the card, 2 high level grapplers wage war for light heavyweight legitimacy. Former D-1 national champion, Phil Davis gets it on with high, HIGH level jiu jitsu practitioner, Vinny Magalhaes. Being a D-1 wrestling elitist will serve Davis well on the ground, but would still be an ill-advised game plan against a submission aficionado like Magalhaes. You name a submission grappling title and chances are, “Pezao” has won it. Not being what you would call a striking virtuoso nor possessing devastating power, Davis could have very serious trouble staving off the submission attacks of his limb stretching adversary. On the other side of that, jiu jitsu fighters aren’t all that renowned for having stellar takedowns, so Davis may very easily be able to avoid a ground battle with the former Team Quest member and being such a high level wrestler himself, he’ll have a definite leg up on takedown defense. Training under the Black House banner, Magalhaes striking game has undoubtedly improved, ESPEEEEECIALLY under the tutelage of the “Honorable” Sensei Seagal. (haha!) ANYway…..on paper, this looks to shape up to be a battle of grappling supremacy, though I’m not sure I’d take that route myself if were Davis.
Prediction: Davis by UD
Heavyweight
The action gets even “bigger” in the buildup to the main event. Big, bad heavyweight contenders take the battlefield in a meeting of chubby vs. chiseled.
Roy Nelson suits up for battle against French kickboxer,
Cheick Kongo. Perpetually in the title hunt, both men will be looking to make an example of the other to keep their names atop the talks of title challengers. With a black belt under Renzo Gracie, Nelson has an undeniable favor on the grappling side of things while Kongo has the much more vast striking pedigree. As we saw in the Overeem/Big Foot fight, however, overconfidence can reap sour fruits so it’d be in Kongo’s best interest to remain respectful of a fighter who’s UFC wins have all come via KO stoppage. Kongo should also use his obvious height and range to keep himself at bay from Nelson’s higher level of grappling lest the fight should hit the ground where Nelson will absolutely not allow Kongo to find his way back to his feet and once again, put the fight back in his world. Though Kongo’s ground game has certainly improved, he’s nowhere nearly in Nelson’s league on the mat and would be well advised to avoid a grappling bout like the Plague. Afterall, the absolute worst fighting blueprint is fighting to an opponent’s strength.
Prediction: Nelson by 2nd round KO/TKO
Middleweight
Michael “The Count” Bisping (24-5-0) vs. Alan “The Talent” Belcher (17-6-0)
Bad blood is the storyline of the co-main event and it’s been years in the making.
Michael Bisping and
Alan Belcher finally face each other to settle their long running disdain for one another. If you are the type of fan who develops strong opinions about fighters, this is either one you love vs. one you hate or rooting for the lesser of two evils. Bisping, a long running favorite to some and villain to others since his days on TUF, is looking to bounce back from his loss to Vitor Belfort and has the perfect opponent, at least in terms of motivation, to do it against. Always in peak condition, Bisping will need to grind down Belcher with his furious pace and consistent pressure both standing and on the ground with a steady stream of strikes. With Bisping, despite self-claims, he’s not a one-punch KO fighter, so it’ll take that grinding to force Belcher into fatigue submission.
On the other side of the token, Belcher DOES possess KO power and is a well-versed ground soldier in every sense. He has a jiu jitsu brown belt, stuffed the vicious leg submission attempts of Rousemar Palhares, and didn’t wilt against the high level judo of Akiyama despite narrowly dropping the decision to the Japanese star. Suffice it to say, Bisping won’t be on Easy Street if he puts Belcher on the ground and might step knee deep in you-know-what if he chooses to bang with a guy who has glazed opponent’s eyes over and studied Muay Thai in the homeland. If Bisping cannot wear Belcher down with his pace and pressure, he could find himself in danger of getting put to sleep in a way reminiscent of his fight against Dan Henderson. As aforementioned, each man despises the other so there’ll be plenty of motivation to put the other away. Fight of the Night, anyone?
Prediction: Belcher by 3rd round KO/TKO
Main Event
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Well, here it is, fight fans. The main event has finally arrived and it’s about time. No, it’s because the other fights won’t be entertaining. No sir, it’s because this has been brewing for the last 6 months. After Dan Henderson was forced to pull out of his title shot against the prodigal champion,
Chael Sonnen, fresh off of a LOSS against middleweight boss, Anderson Silva, threw his name in the hat for the replacement for his former Team Quest teammate. Jones declined on the basis of not being prepared for a different opponent on such short notice and the forums went ballistic. For a trash talker as proficient as Sonnen, this was like tossing gasoline on an open fire. Sonnen’s insults and taunts went into fifth gear and the hype for the fight went sky high. One such slanderous accusation was that Jones himself was a late replacement for an injured Rashad Evans to challenge then champion, ‘Shogun’ Rua, making Jones out to be an egocentric hypocrite in the eyes of legions of fans and sports’ media alike. Well, the time for talk is finally over and it’s here, at last. Time to let the skills do the talking.
On paper, this appears to be extremely one sided. Jones, though not from as deep of a wrestling pedigree as Sonnen, has yet to be out-grappled in his career and, in fact, has flat out rag-dolled some high level grapplers. Jones also is a rather big and rangy light heavyweight so size is also on his side, particularly against a fighter who’s spent the lion’s share of this career competing at middleweight. Neither is a power striker, but the striking diversity most certainly vies in favor of the young champion. Jones is very fond of throwing unorthodox elbows, kicks, and knees at opponents to keep them in a perpetual state of confusion and it’s worked precisely to that very design. Should Sonnen be able to narrow the gap and bring the fight into his grappling universe, he’ll be far from safety still, as Jones has shown extraordinary precision in submitting veterans who are more than twice as seasoned as he is even to the extent of tapping out opponents who are virtually impossible to submit as he did against both ‘Rampage’ Jackson and Lyoto Machida.
Sonnen is going to have to remain extremely disciplined in his strategy so as not to trip and fall into the champion’s wide array of traps as he did for the bulk of his first meeting with Anderson Silva. He’ll need to implement a very busy display of footwork along with feints in both takedowns and punches to offset the rhythm of Jones which won’t be an easy task given that Jones will also be staying busy trying to throw off Chael’s timing and as previously mentioned, Jones is highly effective doing such. Sonnen will need to transition any missteps his movements and feints create into blitzing takedowns. From there, it’ll be imperative that he work at a furious, though controlled, pace to test the will and endurance of the champion. With a little possible luck, Jones may also take him lightly, given the obvious intangibles, and Sonnen can exploit that overconfidence. This will need to be Sonnen’s repetitious fight plan for five solid rounds without the kind of slip up that cost him middleweight gold when he nearly dethroned Silva.
Having laid out the game plans of each man, the odds aren’t just heavily in Jones’ favor, they’re nearly unanimously in his favor. Chael will need to put on a virtuously perfect performance to upset a champion who has shown to have basically no chinks in his armor. Even as such, it’s always an entertaining build-up to a
Chael Sonnen fight so let’s all just sit back and have fun with all that this offers while it’s available. Enjoy, fight fans.
Jon Jones by 2nd Round submission
UFC 159 is available via
Pay Per View through your local cable or satellite provider. The first three preliminary fights of the card will be available via your local internet provider courtesy of Facebook. The following four preliminary fights will take place on FX and FOX Deportes also via your local cable and satellite provider.
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