UFC 329 Preview: Conor McGregor’s Return, Full Fight Card, Odds & Keys to Victory for Every Main Card Fighter
By Real Combat Media MMA Editorial Staff
Las Vegas, NV (July 11th, 2026)– Five years. That’s how long it’s been since Conor McGregor last walked to the Octagon, and tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the layoff ends. UFC 329 closes out International Fight Week, and no matter what you think of the man, you can’t argue with the gravity of the moment. Dana White is calling it the largest live gate in company history. I’m calling it an appointment viewing. Let’s get into everything you need before the cage door closes.
UFC 329: Full Fight Card (with Friday Weigh-In Weights)
All 28 fighters made weight Friday at T-Mobile Arena. Here’s the full lineup with official weigh-in numbers next to each name.
Main Card (Paramount+, 9 p.m. ET)
- Welterweight (5 rounds): Conor McGregor 170.5 (22-6) vs. Max Holloway 170 (27-9) — main event
- Lightweight: Paddy Pimblett 156 (23-4) vs. Benoît Saint Denis 155.5 (17-3) — co-main event
- Bantamweight: Cory Sandhagen 135.5 (18-6) vs. Mario Bautista 135.5 (17-3)
- Flyweight: Lone’er Kavanagh 126 (10-1) vs. Brandon Royval 125 (17-9)
- Lightweight: King Green 155.5 (35-17-1) vs. Terrance McKinney 156 (18-8)
Preliminary Card (7 p.m. ET)
- Light Heavyweight: Robert Whittaker 205.5 (26-9) vs. Nikita Krylov 205.5 (31-11)
- Heavyweight: Gable Steveson 241 (3-0, UFC debut) vs. Elisha Ellison 236 (5-2)
- Bantamweight: Cody Garbrandt 136 (15-7) vs. Adrian Yanez 136 (17-6-1)
- Featherweight: Luke Riley 146 (13-0) vs. Kai Kamaka III 146 (18-7-1)
- Women’s Flyweight: Tracy Cortez 126 (12-3) vs. Wang Cong 125.5 (9-1)
Early Prelims (5 p.m. ET)
- Middleweight: Cesar Almeida 186 (7-2) vs. Damian Pinas 185.5 (9-1)
- Bantamweight: Farid Basharat 136 (15-0) vs. John Garza 135.5 (6-1)
- Middleweight: Ryan Gandra 185.5 (9-1) vs. Zach Reese 184.5 (10-3-1)
- Flyweight: Alessandro Costa 126 (16-5) vs. Cody Durden 125.5 (18-10-1)
That’s a 14-fight marathon, but you and I both know why we’re really here. Let’s break down the main card top to bottom.
Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway — Tale of the Tape
| Conor McGregor | Max Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-6-0 | 27-9-0 |
| Age | 37 (turns 38 on July 14) | 34 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 5’11” |
| Reach | 74″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Finish rate | 86% | 44% |
| Weight class | Welterweight (career-high) | Welterweight (debut) |
Here’s the wrinkle nobody can ignore: this is contested at 170 pounds, a division neither man has fought in before at this weight in a meaningful way. Holloway is walking up from a career spent mostly at featherweight and lightweight. McGregor is walking up too, but he’s the guy who’s actually campaigned at welterweight before — remember the Cerrone knockout, remember the Diaz trilogy at this same weight. That matters.
Film Study: Conor McGregor
I’ve watched the McGregor tape more times than I can count, and the calling card has never changed. Conor features a check left hand, thrown behind a stiff jab and a lot of lateral movement, which has ended careers. He fights off the fence, controls range beautifully, and when he times a straight left off a feint, it’s still one of the scariest punches in the sport’s history. The concerns are just as obvious on film: his gas tank has always been suspect past round two, his takedown defense has been exploited by anyone willing to commit to a real double leg, and he hasn’t taken live professional damage in five years. Cage rust is real, and at nearly 38, there’s no guarantee the reflexes that made that counter left so lethal are still operating at 2016 speed.
Film Study: Max Holloway
Holloway’s tape tells a completely different story, which includes volume, angles, and a chin that has become almost mythical in this sport. He throws in combinations most fighters can’t sustain for fifteen seconds, let alone twenty-five minutes, and he does it while circling out of the pocket instead of standing in the fire. The concern for Holloway watching him against a puncher of McGregor’s caliber: he likes to plant and trade in spurts, and he has been dropped and hurt before, even if he’s never been finished by strikes. Moving up a weight class means eating shots from a naturally bigger, harder-hitting frame than what he’s used to at 145 and 155.
Average Betting Odds:
The market has Holloway favored in the -210 to -235 range, depending on the book, with McGregor sitting out as a live underdog anywhere from +175 to +185. What makes this line fascinating from a handle perspective: reports have roughly 85% of individual tickets backing McGregor, meaning the public is putting its money on nostalgia and power over the numbers. That’s a classic square-money split, and it’s worth knowing before you bet with your heart.
Keys to Victory: Conor McGregor
- End it early. McGregor has to turn this into a five-round fight for maybe two of those rounds. If Holloway’s volume gets to rounds four and five, the tank question decides this fight for him.
- Win the range battle on the outside. McGregor’s reach edge is real (74″ to 69″), but only if he uses it behind a jab instead of standing and loading up.
- Make Holloway respect the takedown. Even a fake shot changes Holloway’s rhythm and opens the counter left. McGregor doesn’t need to actually wrestle — he needs Holloway thinking about it.
Keys to Victory: Max Holloway
- Work behind a high guard early. Absorb the first big shots on the gloves and forearms, not the chin, until McGregor’s timing shows itself.
- Push the pace from bell one. Holloway’s cardio advantage is his biggest weapon in this fight. The longer this goes, the more the physics favor him.
- Use lateral movement, not backward retreat. McGregor cuts off a straight-line retreat as well as anyone who has ever fought. Circling off the center line, not backpedaling, is what neutralizes the power.
A word on the health side of this, because it matters and I’d be doing you a disservice as your combat sports guy not to mention it: McGregor is stepping back in after a catastrophic leg break and half a decade away from live sparring pressure. Long layoffs followed by an immediate return against elite competition are exactly the scenario where fighters take unnecessary cumulative damage, because reflexes and reaction time don’t come back on the same schedule as strength and conditioning. Whatever happens Saturday night, it’s a storyline worth watching, honestly, rather than just hyping.
Co-Main Event: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis
| Paddy Pimblett | Benoît Saint Denis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-4-0 | 17-3-0 |
| Age | 31 | 30 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’11” |
| Reach | 73″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| UFC record | 7-1 | 9-3 |
Film study: Saint Denis is a finisher in the truest sense; every single one of his 17 career wins has come before the final bell, split almost evenly between knockouts and chokes, and he’s riding a four-fight finishing streak that includes a 16-second knockout of Beneil Dariush. He’s a judo black belt who uses strikes to set up the clinch and the fence, not the other way around. Pimblett’s game lives on the mat, too, a BJJ black belt with 10 submission wins, but his last outing against Justin Gaethje exposed defensive lapses on the feet that a finisher like Saint Denis will be actively hunting.
Odds: Saint Denis is favored in the -145 to -148 range, with Pimblett a live dog around +120 to +130.
Keys to Victory — Pimblett: Avoid the clinch and the fence entirely; make this a boxing match where his length and composure can outpoint Saint Denis rather than letting BSD’s judo and top pressure take over.
Keys to Victory — Saint Denis: Stick to the game plan that’s worked for a year straight — strike to close distance, then chain into the takedown before Pimblett can establish rhythm on the feet.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
| Sandhagen | Bautista | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6-0 | 17-3-0 |
| Age | 34 | 33 |
| Height | 5’11” | 5’7″ |
| Reach | 71″ | 68″ |
This is a rematch seven years in the making — Sandhagen submitted a short-notice Bautista via first-round armbar back in 2019, and Bautista has rebuilt himself into a legitimate top-five bantamweight since, winning nine of his last ten. Odds: Sandhagen -130 to -135, Bautista +110 to +115. Keys to victory: Sandhagen wins this by using length, angles, and a jab to keep it standing and avoid the exchanges in the clinch where Bautista has become dangerous; Bautista wins it by turning this into a wrestling match, using volume takedown attempts to tire Sandhagen and steal rounds on the mat.
Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
| Royval | Kavanagh | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-9-0 | 10-1-0 |
| Age | 33 | 27 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’6″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 67″ |
Royval owns more Fight of the Night bonuses than anyone in UFC flyweight history, but he’s dropped two straight and has absorbed heavy volume in recent outings. Kavanagh is red-hot off a decision win over former champion Brandon Moreno. Odds: Kavanagh -215 to -225, Royval +180. Keys to victory: Kavanagh wins by using kicks and speed to keep this at range, forcing Royval to be the aggressor walking into counters; Royval wins by closing distance fast, taking away Kavanagh’s kicking room, and hunting the scramble where his black-belt grappling can turn the fight instantly.
King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
| Green | McKinney | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 35-17-1 | 18-8-0 |
| Age | 39 | 31 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’10” |
| Reach | 71″ | 73″ |
The main card opener, and it has finish written all over it. McKinney holds the record for the fastest knockout in UFC lightweight history and has a 100% finish rate — he’s never once seen a judge’s scorecard. Green is the wily 39-year-old veteran with elite boxing defense who has survived early storms his entire career. Odds: McKinney -130 to -140, Green +110 to +120. Keys to victory: McKinney wins by letting his hands go immediately and pressuring before Green can find his rhythm; Green wins by surviving the first ninety seconds, using head movement and counters to slow McKinney down, then taking over with pace and experience late.
Full Prelim Card Breakdown
Robert Whittaker (26-9) vs. Nikita Krylov (31-11) — 205.5 lbs. Whittaker’s light heavyweight debut after his entire career at 185, and it’s a live one — Krylov is a durable, dangerous former title challenger. Whittaker’s speed and volume against Krylov’s power and experience at the new weight is the featured prelim for a reason.
Gable Steveson (3-0) vs. Elisha Ellison (5-2) — 241 vs. 236 lbs. The Olympic gold medalist finally makes his UFC debut after a perfect run in the regional and Real American Freestyle ranks. Elite wrestling pedigree makes Steveson a heavy favorite here, but this is genuinely his first taste of the Octagon under the lights.
Cody Garbrandt (15-7) vs. Adrian Yanez (17-6-1) — 136 lbs, both former bantamweight champions, against a legitimate knockout artist. Garbrandt’s chin has been questioned in recent years; Yanez has the power to test it again.
Luke Riley (13-0) vs. Kai Kamaka III (18-7-1) — 146 lbs. Both Riley is unbeaten and building real buzz out of Liverpool; Kamaka is the crafty veteran measuring stick who’s shared the Octagon with plenty of come-up prospects before.
Tracy Cortez (12-3) vs. Wang Cong (9-1) — 126 vs. 125.5 lbs No. 8 versus No. 12 in the women’s flyweight rankings, with a real path to a bigger fight for the winner. Cortez’s wrestling against Wang’s improving ground game is the fight inside the fight.
César Almeida (7-2) vs. Damián Pinas (9-1) — 186 vs. 185.5 lbs. Two developing middleweight prospects still building their UFC résumés.
Farid Basharat (15-0) vs. John Garza (6-1) — 136 vs. 135.5 lbs. Basharat is unbeaten and ranked in the bantamweight top 15; Garza steps in on short notice looking to spoil the party.
Ryan Gandra (9-1) vs. Zach Reese (10-3-1) — 185.5 vs. 184.5 lbs. Gandra’s power against Reese’s grit and durability in a middleweight opener with finish potential either way.
Alessandro Costa (16-5) vs. Cody Durden (18-10-1) — 126 vs. 125.5 lbs. Kicks off the card. Durden is the grizzled UFC vet with 18 wins and a habit of grinding out awkward decisions; Costa is looking to make a statement early on a stacked night.
Final Word:
Whatever you’ve read on the McGregor circus over the years, tonight is a genuine sporting question: can a 37-year-old with one fight in five years and a career-altering leg injury still compete with the best in the world at a weight he’s barely lived in? I don’t know the answer. Nobody does. That’s exactly why we watch.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Odds and lines are subject to change. If gambling is no longer fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
Watch: UFC 329 Fight Week
UFC 329 Countdown: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Pre-Fight Press Conference
Media Day: “I Am Back & Will Knockout Max Holloway!”
Ceremonial Weigh-In & Final Face-Off
“The Mac Is Back” — Conor McGregor Exclusive Interview (ESPN)
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