UFC Vegas 122 Preview: Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan Full Card, Film Study, Odds & Weigh-In Video

UFC Vegas 122 Preview: Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan Full Card, Film Study, Odds & Weigh-In Video

By Real Combat Media MMA Editorial Staff

Las Vegas, Nevada, (October 10th, 2026)–UFC Vegas 122 lands at the Meta Apex on Saturday with a five-round middleweight main event between No. 4 Brendan Allen and No. 10 Christian Leroy Duncan, the first UFC headliner of Duncan’s career. Allen brings a three-fight win streak and a submission game that has produced 14 of his 27 wins. Duncan brings a five-fight run, a four-inch reach advantage and the cleaner striking numbers. Matheus Camilo meets Jai Herbert in the co-main event, ranked strawweight Loopy Godinez faces Ketlen Souza, and Andre Fili and Kai Kamaka III meet at featherweight. Three fighters missed weight on Friday, including Ismael Bonfim by 7.5 pounds, but all 12 bouts remain on the card. Below are the records and official weights for every fight, tale-of-the-tape breakdowns, film study and odds for the five-fight main card, plus the weigh-in video.

Main Event: Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan, Middleweight (5 Rounds)

Both men made weight, Allen at 186 and Duncan at 185. The matchup is a classic grappler against striker setup, and the numbers split the same way. Allen has won 10 of his last 12 and both of his recent losses, to Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov, went to decision.

Film Study, Brendan Allen: “All In” is a BJJ black belt with 14 submission wins, 11 of them rear-naked chokes, plus six knockouts and 11 first-round finishes. His current streak includes a unanimous decision over Edmen Shahbazyan in June, a corner stoppage of Reinier de Ridder after four rounds in October 2025 and a decision over Marvin Vettori in July 2025. He lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute at 52 percent accuracy but absorbs 3.78 and defends only 48 percent of strikes, so he gets hit on the way in. He averages 1.52 takedowns and 1.06 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and his fights go long, with an average time of 11:19.

Film Study, Christian Leroy Duncan: “CLD” has 10 knockouts in 15 wins and is easily the more efficient striker, landing 4.45 significant strikes per minute at 58 percent while absorbing just 2.36 with 54 percent defense. He mixes in leg kicks (34 percent of his landed volume) and clinch work (19 percent) with a creative arsenal that includes spinning elbows and tornado kicks. After a 2-3 start in the UFC he has won five straight, over Andrey Pulyaev, Eryk Anders, Marco Tulio, Roman Dolidze and, in July, former title challenger Jared Cannonier by scores of 30-27, 30-27 and 29-28. The question mark is grappling. He defends 58 percent of takedowns, the same as Allen, and has a 0.00 submission average in the UFC.

Keys to Victory, Allen: Close the four-inch reach gap with pressure, drag Duncan into the clinch and change levels early and often. A 58 percent takedown defense is beatable, and over five rounds a grappling-heavy plan gets Allen to the positions where his chokes live.

Keys to Victory, Duncan: Keep range with kicks and the long jab, exit on angles and make Allen pay for coming forward with counters, which is where his 54 percent defense and 2.36 absorbed per minute help. He needs to stay disciplined against takedown attempts, because a long night on the bottom is the most direct route to a loss.

Odds: Allen -120 to -150, Duncan +100 to +125

Co-Main Event: Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert, Lightweight

Camilo weighed 156 and Herbert 155. It is Camilo’s first UFC co-main event, a placement some analysts called surprising for a three-round lightweight fight between two unranked fighters.

Film Study, Matheus Camilo: “Jaguar” is a 25-year-old Brazilian who trains at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas and holds a brown belt in BJJ. He earned his UFC contract on Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight event in South Korea and lost his UFC debut to Gabe Green by rear-naked choke in May 2025. Since then he has won two straight, a decision over Viacheslav Borshchev at UFC 322 and a first-round knockout of Nazim Sadykhov in 1:31 in Baku in June. His striking volume is modest (2.22 significant strikes per minute at 43 percent), but he lands 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 67 percent of strikes. Five of his 11 wins came by knockout and four of his finishes came in round one.

Film Study, Jai Herbert: The “Black Country Banger” is a 38-year-old former Cage Warriors lightweight champion and BJJ black belt with 10 knockouts in 14 wins. He lands 3.19 significant strikes per minute at 42 percent accuracy, absorbs 3.34 and defends 53 percent of strikes, with a knockdown average of 0.84 per 15 minutes. His favorite weapon is the left hook to the body. He returned in April with a first-round knockout of Mandel Nallo at 2:05 after a split-decision loss to Chris Padilla in March 2025, and he defends 67 percent of takedowns. His record in the UFC is uneven, including stoppage losses to Ilia Topuria and Renato Moicano.

Keys to Victory, Camilo: Use his youth and wrestling to make this a grind. Herbert owns a 7.5-inch reach advantage and real power, so Camilo should not stand and trade for long and needs to mix in takedowns, which Herbert has defended well on paper.

Keys to Victory, Herbert: Keep the fight at the end of his jab and the body hook, stay off the fence and punish Camilo’s 43 percent striking accuracy. At 38 and with 10 knockouts on his record, a first-round finish is his cleanest path.

Odds: Camilo -192 to -200, Herbert +148 to +165

Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza, Women’s Strawweight

Godinez, ranked No. 8 in the division, made weight at 115.5. Souza weighed 117, one pound over the 116-pound non-title limit, and was fined 20 percent of her purse. The bout stays on.

Film Study, Loopy Godinez: The Mexican contender has won six of her last nine and 11 of her 14 victories have come by decision, which tells you what her fights look like. She lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute at 49 percent, absorbs 3.94 and puts 78 percent of her volume to the head. She averages 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 77 percent of attempts against her. She returns off a second-round submission loss to Tatiana Suarez at UFC 327 in April, after back-to-back decision wins over Jessica Andrade and Julia Polastri. Her fights average 13:21.

Film Study, Ketlen Souza: “Esquentadinha” is a Brazilian boxer with nine knockouts in her 17 wins and six first-round finishes. She lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute at 57 percent accuracy, absorbs 3.89 and defends just 54 percent of takedowns. She is 2-0 in 2026, a unanimous decision over Bruna Brasil in February and a first-round knockout of Ariane Carnelossi in 1:34 in June, after split-decision losses to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill in 2025. She cross-trains in Muay Thai with Amanda Ribas and has publicly predicted a second-round knockout.

Keys to Victory, Godinez: Take the fight into deep water. With 77 percent takedown defense and a long record of winning rounds, she wants a measured pace, steady volume and takedowns against a fighter who defends only 54 percent of them.

Keys to Victory, Souza: Land the power early and make Godinez fight in reverse. Her 57 percent accuracy is excellent, but she needs to end exchanges with the first clean shot and stay on her feet, because takedown defense is the soft spot in her game.

Odds: Godinez -225 to -245, Souza +185

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III, Featherweight

Fili weighed 145.5 and Kamaka 146. Both enter after losses, Fili after two straight and Kamaka after a first-round TKO.

Film Study, Andre Fili: “Touchy” debuted in the UFC in October 2013 and has fought more than 25 times in the promotion, with two Fight of the Night and two Performance of the Night bonuses. He is 36, a Team Alpha Male veteran, and has won four of his last nine. He lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute at 38 percent, absorbs 4.55 and defends 50 percent of strikes, with 73 percent of his volume to the head. He has lost two straight this year, a split decision to Jose Miguel Delgado in March and a second-round TKO to Vinicius Oliveira in June. His takedown defense is a solid 72 percent, and his favorite technique is the flying triangle.

Film Study, Kai Kamaka III: “Da Fighting Hawaiian” returned to the UFC this year after leaving the promotion in 2021 and spending time in Bellator and PFL, where he reached the 2024 featherweight semifinals. He is a BJJ black belt and former college wrestler with a boxing-first approach, 14 decisions in 18 wins and a high-volume, body-heavy style. He lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute at 59 percent and 41 percent of his volume goes to the body, but he also absorbs 6.03 per minute. His takedown accuracy is 54 percent (7 of 13). In 2026 he beat Dakota Hope by split decision in April and was stopped by Luke Riley at 3:03 of the first round at UFC 329 in July.

Keys to Victory, Fili: Use the five-inch reach edge and a veteran’s patience. He should keep Kamaka at the end of the jab, avoid wild early exchanges and take rounds with clean accuracy, since the volume numbers favor Kamaka.

Keys to Victory, Kamaka: Go to the body, win the pace and test Fili’s chin and cardio with volume. After the quick stoppage against Riley, he has to make sure he is not walking into long shots.

Odds: Fili -150 to -155, Kamaka +125 to +134

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi, Bantamweight

Both men made weight at 136 pounds. The fight opens the main card and has a stylistic hook, with a knockout puncher on one side and a fighter who leans on kickboxing and takedowns on the other.

Film Study, Malcolm Wellmaker: “The Machine” is a striker from Augusta, Georgia who trains at Faglier’s MMA and began his UFC run with first-round knockouts of Cameron Saaiman (1:59) and Kris Moutinho (2:37) in 2025, earning two bonuses. Six of his 10 wins are knockouts and six came in round one. He has since dropped two straight, a unanimous decision to Ethyn Ewing at UFC 322 and a second-round rear-naked choke to Juan Diaz in May. He lands 4.58 significant strikes per minute at 55 percent and averages 1.44 knockdowns per 15 minutes, but he defends only 47 percent of takedowns, and Diaz landed five of eight in the May loss.

Film Study, Otari Tanzilovi: The Georgian kickboxer is a five-time national kickboxing champion and two-time boxing national champion with seven knockouts in 10 wins. His first pro loss was a split decision to Josias Musasa on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024, and he lost his UFC debut by unanimous decision to Shane Collins in June. In that fight he landed 4.20 significant strikes per minute at 69 percent, defended 86 percent of takedowns and averaged 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. His favorite strikes are the left liver kick and the triangle choke.

Keys to Victory, Wellmaker: Start fast and make this a hand-speed fight. His fights average 6:15, and his best results come inside of two rounds. The priority is keeping off his back, since Diaz controlled him on the mat.

Keys to Victory, Tanzilovi: Mix kicks and clinch work with takedowns to test Wellmaker’s 47 percent takedown defense, and make this a long fight where Wellmaker’s volume dips.

Odds: Wellmaker -225 to -235, Tanzilovi +180 to +190

Full Card Records and Weights

Records listed first, official Friday weigh-in weights in parentheses (pounds).

Main Card (Paramount+, 8 p.m. ET)
Brendan Allen, 27-7 (186) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan, 15-2 (185)
Matheus Camilo, 11-3 (156) vs. Jai Herbert, 14-6-1 (155)
Loopy Godinez, 14-6 (115.5) vs. Ketlen Souza, 17-6 (117)*
Andre Fili, 25-14, 1 NC (145.5) vs. Kai Kamaka III, 18-8-1 (146)
Malcolm Wellmaker, 10-2 (136) vs. Otari Tanzilovi, 10-2 (136)

Preliminary Card (Paramount+, 5 p.m. ET)
Julius Walker, 7-3 (205.5) vs. Gerald Meerschaert, 37-22 (205.5)
Francisco Prado, 12-5 (155) vs. Ismael Bonfim, 20-7 (163.5)**
Niko Price, 16-11, 2 NC (170.5) vs. Leon Shahbazyan, 12-5 (171)
Felipe Franco, 11-2 (205) vs. Brendson Ribeiro, 17-11, 1 NC (208.5)***
Allen Frye Jr., 6-1 (246) vs. RJ Harris, 6-0 (261)
Alice Pereira, 7-1 (136) vs. Daria Zhelezniakova, 10-3 (136)
Ernesta Kareckaitė, 6-2-1 (126) vs. Melissa Gatto, 9-3-2 (126)

*Souza missed the strawweight limit by one pound and was fined 20 percent of her purse.
**Bonfim missed the lightweight limit by 7.5 pounds, his third weight miss in the UFC. The bout proceeds at catchweight and he forfeits 25 percent of his purse to Prado.
***Ribeiro missed the light heavyweight limit by 2.5 pounds and forfeits 20 percent of his purse to Franco.

Watch

Odds are approximate ranges compiled from multiple sportsbooks and are subject to change. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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