UFC 201 Preview – “Gamblers Guide Edition”
By Marc Weeks
Welcome to the Marc Week’s “Gambler’s Guide Edition”. In addition to analysis and prediction, this article will feature information about whether or not a particular fight’s betting line has value. So many of these fights feature top caliber athletes pitted against one another, that simply stating who is going to win is basically a 50/50 shot. However, in this rendition of my articles, I will give myself fictional money and place wagers on fighters. The object being, to see how much money I can accrue by selecting the best value. I’ll start with a fictional $1000 and the more it grows the better values I am generating.
Analysis and Predictions via Real Combat Media record, 2-1.
Bankroll: $991 (-9)
UFC 201- Lawler vs Woodley takes place this Saturday in the Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia. The main event features “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler defending his welterweight title vs Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley. Lawler has cemented himself as one of the greatest welterweights of all time, beating a who’s who to ascend to the welterweight crown. Woodley, in addition to have the worst nickname, somehow got a title shot while being inactive. The last time he fought was in January of last year, a spilt decision win against Kevin Gastelum. Woodley’s biggest win was against Carlos Condit, who suffered a freak injury in that fight and didn’t really defeat Condit. For these reasons, Tyron is considered by many, including this writer, to have not truly earned a title shot but all is well because Robbie Lawler is a truth machine and will sort out who is truly worthy or not. The other fights this article will analyze is #8 ranked Matt Brown vs Jake Ellenberger, who desperately needs a win, losing five of his last six and a match-up of two journeymen with Jorge Masvidal vs Ross Pearson. The latter fight could be a “loser leaves town” match-up.
“Ruthless” Robbie Lawler (27-10) vs Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley (15-3)
“Ruthless” is exactly that inside the cage. He has a punishing offence and the great ability to keep the fight standing. Robbie hits extremely hard for a welterweight. Not only has he KO’ed many in his own weight class but he has KO’ed many bigger middleweights as well. Because he hits so hard, he is willing to stand and trade shots with his opponents, knowing his shots are harder. In addition to his tremendous offensive skills, Lawler has great takedown defense along with the ability to get back up, if taken down. In the other corner, Woodley is a physical specimen. How somebody with that many muscles makes 170lbs is beyond me. Typical of highly muscled, explosive fighters, Woodley’s endurance lacks because of size and fight style. Woodley has struggled against veteran fighters and fatigues in later rounds. This is bad news for “The Chosen One” as Robbie is a pressure fighter who has been there and done that. “The Chosen One” will find himself the victim of a “Ruthless” beat down.
“Ruthless”, by KO, round 2
Betting Value: Tyron is custom made to get smashed by Robbie. I would buy Robbie at almost any price but the -200 is too good. Betting big, $300 to win $450.
Matt “The Immoral” Brown (20-14) vs Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger (30-11)
Matt Brown, 35, is the living embodiment of a pressure fighter. From the moment the bell rings, he is right in front of his opponents, throwing punches. Combined with a slick Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, Brown has been ranked among the top five welterweights in the world. Ellenberger, 31, is a wrestler with a solid left hand but has struggled against top competition. Jake will have a hard time landing an effective power shot against the durable Brown. Ellenberger must take and keep down Brown if he is to have a shot at winning. As this is such a tall task “The Juggernaut” will look more like the “Jugger-not”.
This is a must win fight for either fighter. Matt Brown has lost 3 of his last 4 including a submission loss to Demian Maia at UFC 198 in May. Ellenberger has lost 5 of his last 6 fights. Most recently he lost in January to Tarec Saffiedine by unanimous decision.
Betting Value: Brown is a -325 favorite and that is pretty expensive for a guy that likes to get hit but I am still going to buy in at $50 to win $65.
Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (29-11) vs Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson (19-11)
This fight could easily be “Fight of the Night”. Both of these fighters are boxing centric, durable and will be looking to exchange bombs. Pearson boxing is slick but he will have a hard time chasing down the quicker Masvidal. Speaking of Masvidal, he has a glaring weakness and it’s the fact that he likes to coast in later rounds. This means he has had a hard time winning decisions. If the fight goes the distance, look for Pearson to pick up the spilt decision win.
Pearson, via Spilt Decision.
Betting Value: These fighters are so close in skill set and there is a distinct possibility this fight will go the distance. At -230 Masvidal the market is wrong, he should not be favored this much. Conversely, Pearson is too much of an underdog at +190. The value is Pearson, just don’t go crazy with the money. I am going to put $20 on Pearson to win $58.
*Lines subject to change
Main Card (PPV) 10PM ET
Welterweight Robbie Lawler (c) vs. Tyron Woodley [a]
Women’s Strawweight Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Welterweight Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger
Bantamweight Francisco Rivera vs. Érik Pérez
Flyweight Ian McCall vs. Justin Scoggins
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)
Light Heavyweight Ed Herman vs. Nikita Krylov
Welterweight Ross Pearson vs. Jorge Masvidal
Heavyweight Anthony Hamilton vs. Damian Grabowski
Flyweight Wilson Reis vs. Hector Sandoval
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Welterweight Michael Graves vs. Bojan Veličković
Flyweight Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano
Lightweight César Arzamendia vs. Damien Brown
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