Pacquiao versus Algieri Preview: Technical Counter Punching War Won By Speed
By Robert Brizel, Head Real Combat Media Boxing Correspondent
Macau, China (November 19th, 2014)– On paper, Chris Algieri versus Manny Pacquiao is an even 12 round World Boxing Organization World Welterweight title match. The Bob Arum Top Rank promoted November 22, 2014 main event at Colai Arena, Venetian Resort, Macau, China, is a Pay-Per-View HBO extravaganza, which will also be telecast on Hungary sport 1 and New Zealand Sky Arena. Pacquiao knows the ring he will be fighting in, having beaten Brandon Rios here in November 2013 in a 12 rounder. Algieri, in recent interviews, has miantianed his smooth personality, and has emphasized he has done the work to a higher level in preparation for this bout, and has not appeared to be bothered by either the location, the venue, or boasts of a knockout from the Pacquiao camp.
Pacquiao has predicted a first round knockout. A 35 year old southpaw from General Santos City, Philippines, 56-5-2 with 38 knockouts, Pacquiao and trainer Freddie Roach are banking on Algieri’s weak chin. Algieri was knocked down twice in the first round by Ruslan Provodnikov, but came back to split decision Provodnikov over 12 rounds in his last bout in June 2014.
Algieri is a thinking high I.Q. college educated fighter, capable of modifying his game plan to the style and approach of his adversary to turn the tables. A double world champion professional kickboxer, Algieri is 20-0 with eight knockouts as a professional boxer, and an astounding 40-0 as a boxing and MMA champion overall. Algieri’s trainers, Keith Trimble and Tim Lane, know Pacquiao’s chinis suspect when he leaves himself open and gets cocky. Juan Manuel Marquez caught Pacquiao coming in and knocked him out in the sixth round in 2012. Algieri is the best known boxer to come from Huntington, Long Island since former number one heavyweight contender Gerry Cooney.
Freddie Roach does not compare Pacquiao’s style to other fighters. Roach has only stated he has set “A new game plan.” The quote makes sense. Roach also likes Pacquiao at 144 pounds, down from 147 pounds, and eventually wants to settle Pacquiao at 140 pounds.
Is China a neutral venue? Hard to say. Pacquiao certainly might have many fans fly in from the Phillipines and other parts of the world. Does Pacquiao hit harder than Provodnikov? No. However, Pacquiao has a sky high volume of punches thrown per round and per fight, more so than other fighters.
For Algieri to win, Algieri has to be first. He has to set the tempo of the bout from the onset. Algieri needs to get angles on Pacquiao and create punching opportunities throughout the contest. Algieri cannot stand in front of Pacquiao, and he cannot stay on the ropes.
Pacquiao fights at a fast pace. Can Algieri match it? You never know. Pacquiao lands frequent combinations. Can Algieri match this approach? You never know.
Pacquiao trainer Freddie Roach is going to study Algieri’s last three fights with Ruslan Provodnikov, Emmanuel Taylor and Wilfredo Acuna, and develop the game plan to beat him. This reporter was ringside for the welterweight bout between Raymond Serrano and Wilfredo Acuna at Harrah’s Philadelphia casino this past weekend. Serrano cut and stopped Acuna with pinpoint accurate straight jabs while maintaining superior movement. Pacquiao will know Algieri accomplished this game plan, and will have to be prepared to match it or exceed it, in terms of speed and accuracy.
In any professional boxing bout, anybody can knockout anybody, as Marquez, who was getting outpunched and outworked, so magnificently proved against Pacquiao. Pacman is a better counterpuncher than Algieri, meaning Algieri’s game plan has to make counterpunching his strong point if he is to beat Pacquiao. over 12 rounds, Pacquiao’s going to outscore Algieri on the three judges’ scorecards, because he’s the busier of the two fighters.
Algieri has got to be counterpunching and scoring consistently to score a knockout like Marquez did over Pacquiao, by eventually breaking him down. Marquez caught Pacquiao coming in for the knockout, and if Pacquiao repeats such carelessness it could happen again.
Pacquiao versus Algieri is one of these ‘you never know’ fights. The outcome all depends on the game plan approach by each fighter. Everyone’s got a game plan till somebody gets hit.
One strategy Roach may employ against Algieri is to have Pacquiao target Algieri’s right eye (which was swollen shut against Provodnikov) with pinpoint accurate counterpunching. If Pacquiao can close Algieri’s right eye earlier than the eleventh round, Algieri may be in trouble because his scope of vision has been narrowed. Pacquiao would be a fool not to try to accomplish this, after Provodnikov targeted Algieri’s right eye with success in the first round, and then continued targeting it for the rest of the bout.
It must be remembered Algieri had a higher work rate than Provodnikov, throwing 993 punches to Provodnikov’s 776. Pacquiao was outpunched by Timothy Bradley 627 to 563, though his accuracy rate was higher. If Pacquiao has slowed down, Algieri could outwork him, a key factor missed by many experts.
The winner of Pacquiao versus Algieri is a better candidate to fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. than Amir Khan. Manny will not fight Floyd for a few million ‘peanuts’. Algieri would fight Floyd regardless of the payday. in all respects, Algieri is a better candidate to get a fight with Floyd if he wins. If Pacman is to fight Floyd, it would have to be in 2015.
Pacquiao, in my professional view, defeats Algieri by unanimous or majority 12 round decision due to the difference in fighting mentality. Algieri is a Mixed Martial arts fighter with an overall record of 40-0 between boxing and MMA. His approach is you go, seek and destroy your opponent. Pacquiao is a boxer only, whose motivation is to outbox and outscore his opponent but not get hit. Algieri is unlikely to knock the fast moving Pacquiao out. Pacquiao is likely to remain off the ropes and out of range as he boxes Algieri cautiously.
Algieri will go the distance over 12 rounds with Pacquiao in an interesting bout featuring the contrast in fighting styles. The only flaw Pacquiao could have is if he does not take the fight inside, as with a five inch reach advantage Algieri can outwork him on the outside while maintaining a higher work rate. Pacquiao, if he boxes Algieri smartly, will remain out of range like he did against Mike Alvarado, and not give Algieri any chances, and win by accuracy as he did against Joshua Clottey. Pacquiao’s accurate work rate forced Clottey on the defensive for all 12 rounds. Pacquiao’s speed and accuracy, when demonstrated to perfection, should put Algieri on the defensive and on his bicycle en route to a victory by Pacman. At this point is his career, Pacquiao is too wise to fall for the usual traps, and too seasoned to get outboxed by Algieri.
COMMENTS
English