UFC 161 Preview
Jon Hunsicker
UFC 161 will be the UFC’s fifth Canadian city to host an event in its 12 stops across the country. The MTS Center just broke their record of largest single day event gate in the buildings 10 year history, and for good reason. The fans are going to be treated to the No. 3 and No. 6 light heavyweights battle for their survival and place in the UFC ranks.
The night begins with two Facebook prelims. The first up is Yves Jabouin and Dustin Pague. Yves comes in with an 18-8-0 record with respectable losses to guys like Mark Hominik, Raphael Assuncao and Brad Pickett with all of his UFC wins coming by way of decision. Dustin Pague, a TUF 14 Team Miller member, has an 11-8-0 record. All of his wins are finishes, eight submissions and three KO’s.
My opinion: Dustin is a finisher, but Yves is a little more well-rounded. I see this fight going to a decision with Pague’s striking keeping Jabouin’s wrestling at bay.
To wrap up the Facebook fights we have Mitch Clarke and John Maguire. The Canadian Mitch Clarke is coming in with losses for his first two UFC fights and an overall 9-2-0 record. John Maguire, with an overall 18-5-0, is coming off a two loss streak as well, with the last being Matt Riddle.
My opinion: I see John Maguire’s Gypsy Jiu-Jitsu and experience; smother the striking of Mitch Clarke, and pulling a submission off in round 2.
Onward, to the Prelims: Live on FX. We will kick off with 8-1, 1NC, Roland Delorme and 9-2, Edwin Figueroa. With two wins and an overturned decision so far in the UFC, the Canadian TUF 14 member, Delorme, is a threat on his feet and on the ground. With six wins by submission and two by KO, he is definitely a finisher. Which brings us to Figueroa, his last pre-UFC fight was against Johnny Bedford, who had not been knocked out in his previous 25 fights. Edwin scored a second round TKO. He has six KO wins and two by submission, finishing all but one of his victims.
My opinion: I’m going with Figueroa’s hands on this one. He has a 44% takedown avoidance, which isn’t spectacular, but mixed with his speed, I think he can defend Delorme’s 27% takedown success rate and leave with a late second, or early third round TKO.
Next fight, we have two wrestlers at 170 lbs. 13-6 Canadian, Sean “The Punisher” Pierson, is coming off of a September 2012 loss to Lance Benoist at UFC 152, but with six KO and four submission finishes all in the first round, he is still a very dangerous opponent. Illinois native and 12-2 wrestler Kenny Robertson’s pedigree is no less impressive with eight submissions, three TKO’s, and finishes in his last five fights.
My opinion: I’m leaning towards Pierson’s almost 10 more years of experience, striking, and takedown defense to prevail over Robertson’s five years pro and 14% takedown success with a decision.
Let’s get to Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout (20-8-1) and James “The James Krause” Krause (19-4). Sam Stout is no stranger to the UFC, with 16 fights in the Octagon, nine wins by KO or TKO and fifth best fight of 2007 (according to UFC.com). Sam’s a striker by trade with 85% of his strikes standing and a 77% takedown avoidance, add that together and you’ve got a guy you do not want to get touched by. Enter “The James Krause”. Not only does he have the best, yet unoriginal, moniker, he’s also on a seven fight win streak. 12 wins by submission, five by KO and 14 first frame finishes round this kid out nicely. Krause’s main disadvantage is having only 3 fights in the Octagon to Stout’s 16. Other than that, he may even have a little more diverse game than Stout.
My opinion: I like Stout for the fight. I have a feeling though that Krause is going to be hungrier than Stout and go all out, which may also be his downfall, in which Stout’s experience and patience will pay off. Tough guess but, I say Stout, TKO in the third round.
To top off the prelims, we have Jake Shields (27-6-1, 1NC) and Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley (11-1). What can I really expand on about Jake Shields? He’s successfully fought at 170 and 185, had a 15 fight win streak, has wins over some of the biggest names in MMA like Dan Henderson, Robbie Lawler, Carlos Condit, Mike Pyle, Mayhem, etc. etc…In a nutshell, the guy has been around as a viable contender forever. Woodley’s no slouch though. He’s had wins over some tough guys, Jay Heiron, Jordan Mein, Paul Daley and his only loss is to Nate “The Great”. He’s going to have to bring his “A” game with Shield’s though. Jake brings endurance, technique and experience to Tyron’s speed and power.
My opinion: Just throwing this out there but, I think Tyron just might be able to get ahold of Jake’s chin. I’m going to go with the underdog and give him a TKO stoppage first round to try to bypass Jake’s endurance factor.
For the next match we get the heavy handed, leg kicking machine that is Pat Barry (8-5) taking on the equally lethal striker Shawn Jordan (14-4). Personally, I’m a Pat Barry fan. With that out of the way, Barry’s been having some rough luck since moving to the UFC and out of kickboxing. The man is still a solid striker and has some power. His drawback is relying solely on his striking ability. The former LSU fullback, Shawn Jordan, on the other hand, has a lot of the same one punch power and adds in some takedown ability. He’s won three of his last four fights, has ten KO and three submission wins. These guys are going to drop bombs until they level the MTS.
My opinion: Personal preference aside, I still have Barry on this one. I think his experience in and out of the octagon is going to give him an edge over the lesser experienced Jordan.
And now we get to the ladies, Alexis Davis (13-5) and Rosi Sexton (13-2). Alexis is a tough chick. She has wins over some big names in WMMA like Amanda Nunes and Julie Kedzie with a loss to Sarah Kauffman. She has won five of her last six matches and the last two in a row. With seven submission wins and two KO’s, she is well rounded enough to be a threat standing and on the mat. Rosi is the pioneer of WMMA in the UK. Oddly enough, she also has seven submission wins and two KO victories on her resume. She holds wins over fighters such as Roxanne Modafferi and Debi Purcell with only two losses: Zoila Frausto Gurgel and Gina Carano.
My opinion: These girls are so close in skill and ability; it’s going to come down to heart, desire and endurance. I think I’ll have to go with Rosi for her five years’ experience over Alexis to earn a decision, but honestly this could go either way.
Up next, Ryan Jimmo (17-2) and Igor Pokrajac (25-9, 1NC) duke it out. Jimmo is a strong wrestler and has also showcased his huge striking power. Coming off a loss to James Te Huna, he will be looking to move back up the ranks. He has relatively good takedown defense, but 67% of his strikes are on the ground, so if he does go down, he can battle his way out. Cro Cop protégé, Igor Pokrajac, is a seasoned veteran with good stand up and a fair share of submission victories. 10 of his last 11 wins have been finishes with a grand total of 14 KO/TKO’s and 8 submissions.
My opinion: I think Igor is going to attempt to take this fight to the ground and when he does, I look to see a ground and pound TKO for Ryan Jimmo late in the second round.
For the co-main event we get Roy “Big Country” Nelson (19-7) versus Stipe Miocic (9-1). Big Country is one of the most under rated and deceptive fighters in the game. For being a “fat guy,” the man has endurance for days, not to mention a steel chin. He has knock out power, every UFC win has been by KO. His total is 13 TKO/KO and 4 submissions so he still has a secretly dangerous ground game as well. Stipe has power also. He hits hard and fast, but was also a nationally ranked Division 1 wrestler for Cleveland State. His takedowns are fast, but with only one submission win, he is more of a stand up banger. Miocic has finished eight of his nine wins so look for this guy to be throwing bombs.
My opinion: On paper, Big Country has this fight because of his well roundedness (no pun intended) and I fully agree. Miocic has the ability and power to pull off an upset, but I see Nelson dominating this fight and don’t look for there to be a second round.
The main event of the evening…”Suga” Rashad Evans (22-3-1) and Dan “Hendo” Henderson (29-9). This should be an exciting fight. Both of these fighters have proven knockout power, strong wrestling and plenty of endurance. Rashad has been a force since he beat four heavyweights to win The Ultimate Fighter. He has wins over some of the biggest names in the game and has won four of his last six fights. Five of his last nine were knockout, but only one submission win since 2004. Hendo, this man has the best resume in combat sports. He is 6-3 in the UFC, 13-5 in Pride and 3-1 in Strikeforce. He is the only man to hold knockout victories over Renzo Gracie and Fedor Emelianenko. He has great takedowns and takedown defense. It will definitely be a war.
My opinion: I have to go with Hendo in this one. He has the experience, power and skill to deal with Rashad wherever the fight goes. Granted, Rashad will not let him have it easily, it will be a long road to a decision in Hendo’s favor.
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