A Tale of Two Floyds, Why Floyd Mayweather Jr. Will Knock Out Guerrero
By Robert Brizel, Head Real Combat Media Correspondent
Las Vegas, NV (May 2nd, 2013)– Here is a tale of two Floyds. Yes indeed, Floyd Mayweather Jr. is going to knock out Robert ‘Ghost’ Guerrero. Here is the framework for the probable game plan Floyd will utilize to neutralize Robert Guerrero in his tracks in their welterweight war.
The key to victory for Floyd in this critical welterweight bout is for Floyd to avoid Guerrero in the first half of the fight. He cannot chase Guerrero. Floyd has to make Guerrero come to him. So for six rounds, Floyd will have to stick and move magnificently, with very fast hands and super fast feet. Floyd must be moving around and about the ring with lightning fast speed, nailing Guerrero with lightning fast jabs while all the while not being there as an available target for even a split second. This unique but effective approach will force Robert Guerrero to chase Floyd for the first six rounds, forcing a furious blistering pace without the ring being cut off. This approach favors Mayweather fighting his fight, setting the tempo.
We have seen how Floyd can in a split second finish an opponent due to the opponent’s momentary lapse in concentration, such as Floyd finishing Victor Ortiz during a split second mistake by Joe Cortez taking his eyes off the fighters while signaling time in to the timekeeper, and Floyd taking advantage of Ortiz by knocking him out before Cortez signaled the fighters to continue. So it appeared Floyd has instinctive mastery of any ring situation in the ring and out.
Guerrero is a southpaw, and getting his front foot to the outside will be critical to Guerrero’s ability to attempt to overpower Floyd. If Floyd stops for any reason and allows Guerrero to plant his feet in power position, Floyd will get dropped and will need to take advantage of his rematch clause. FLoyd better keep moving all night.
If Guerrero is baited in to chase Floyd-by Floyd-Floyd can counter. Floyd’s mistake will be to try to slug it out and prove himself right away. The other Floyd, Floyd Patterson, tried this with Sonny Liston twice in the first round and paid the price. Yet when Patterson changed tactics and converted to creative counterpuncher, he outboxed George Chuvalo in 12 at Madison Square Garden brilliantly, shocking the world, Muhammad Ali and even himself that he could come back and fight so well.
Tactics mean everything in Floyd Mayweather Jr. versus Robert Guerrero’s psyche, and the tactician who executes the superior game plan first is going to win. In the second half of the fight, somewhere between rounds six to eight, Floyd Mayweather Jr. must change his ring tactics late and then go directly after Robert Guerrero, taking the fight to the inside in center ring and overpowering Guerrero after the furious pace of the bout has Guerrero slowing down a bit and beginning to tire.
Mayweather found a cautious opponent in Miguel Cotto, who kept a solid defense in perhaps winning a round or two here and there, but for the most part not taking chances. Mayweather found inexperience in Victor Ortiz, who fouled, tried to apologize, then got knocked out in a split second due to Floyd’s ability to concentrate over an opponent perhaps hypnotized by the show and the opponent.
If Guerrero fights a survival type fight, such as Shane Mosley, Juan Manuel Marquez, Carlos Baldimir, Zab Judah, De Marcus Corley, Victoriano Sosa, Jose Luis Castillo (twice), Carlos Hernandez, Gregorio Vargas, Tony Pep, Gustavo Cuello, and Larry O’Shields did against Floyd, Guerrero can go the 12 round distances but he is not going to win any rounds. Hard work will be a major factor in this bout, and either Floyd or Guerrero is going to win because one man wants it a little bit more. Floyd has a more polished ring generalship, noted as a key factor.
Floyd should do a magnificent job of working Guerrero over in brutal toe-to-toe exchanges in the later rounds. Floyd will have his best chance of knocking out Guerrero in the ninth, tenth and eleventh rounds if he executes the desired game plan to perfection. If both combatants are overly cautious to open up, then Floyd will win a controversial 12 round decision sure to be unpopular with some fight fans. Who cares? The fans want to see Floyd versus Guerrero, and Floyd versus the winner of Austin Trout versus Saul Alvarez. It’s not about them money for Floyd Mayweather Jr., as he always has it. This bout is about Floyd fighting one unbeaten Rocky Marciano after another, is search of better and better challengers and world champions to find out how good of a super duper world champion for all times Floyd really is. Of course, only Ezzard Charles gave Marciano a 15 round challenge.
Robert Guerrero is not the sort of opponent most fighters want to meet in a dark alley. Guerrero is a very smart fighter, though. He knows different ways to win, and like Floyd, can change his game plan midstream. Both Guerrero and Floyd have high IQs, perhaps two of the higher IQs of fighters in a big match in many years. Floyd will have to think and feel his way through the grandmaster chess match in
the ring Guerrero will present, and at times, might get taken on a trip to true hell.
The match up is a great one, generating the sort of excitement boxing needs now, which promotion alone cannot accomplish. However if one of the fighters has not done the hard work, and has not done their homework in extra preparations for this extraordinary contest, somebody might fall sooner rather than later. Or fall anyway. I like Floyd to win as the universally more strategic boxer over Guerrero.
As for hand picking opponents, the argument about Floyd doesn’t hold as Guerrero is ‘The Ghost’, as difficult to hit as Bernard Hopkins. Floyd must realize Guerrero has won every scorecard since 2001 save one split decision. FLoyd relying on his natural ability will not do the trick. Floyd has natural talent, but as Max Schmeling did with Joe Louis before their first confrontation, Floyd must study previous fight footage on Guerrero, and fully acquaint himself on the opponent and the task at hand. Floyd will win by late round knockout, Whatever does happens, this bout is fireworks because Guerrero will try for a knockout after he knows he cannot win on the scorecards. Such a scenario means only one fighter will be left standing when the dust settles. If Guerrero is ahead on the cards late, Floyd will swing away. Wow!
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