Game Theory: A Review of the Pacquiao-Bradley Conspiracies
Photo: boxingscene.com
By: José A Maldonado, MFA
Were you angry? Did you throw the remote control across the room before yelling at the TV screen? Or did you simply sit in a silence brought on by disbelief? Whatever your reaction to the Pacquiao-Bradley decision, I’d be willing to bet it wasn’t good (and yes, betting plays an important role in this piece).
In the aftermath of Timothy Bradley’s wildly controversial decision win over Manny Pacquiao boxing’s casual fans have come out of the woodwork to offer their inexpert opinion on what really went down. I’m just curious to know where they were when Simon Brown was robbed blind against Kevin Pompay the first time. Or when Felix Sturm traveled all the way to the US only to be Shanghaied versus Oscar De La Hoya, a defeat that led to Sturm holing up in Germany and refusing to come out. I can go on, of course, but in the interest of time, I’ll let you fill in the blanks.
Contrary to what many boxing writers have said, this decision does not dispel the notion that the money fighter always wins. This still remains true (for every bad decision in which the money fighter is robbed I can come up with at least 10 in which the opposite occurs) and what happened Saturday night is only an anomaly within a pattern that is usually easy to predict. Rather than add to what’s been said (and repeated) the past couple of days, let us put on our aluminum hats for a bit and review the conspiracy theories that, true or not, have been swirling around the internet. This is not an effort to disprove or validate any of these, instead it’s intent is to demonstrate one of two things: either how misguided us fans can be after a bad decision, or just how riddled with corruption our sport really is:
(Un)sure Bet
As soon as the decision was read fight fans said they smelled a rat, and when it comes to boxing, rats often smell like money. For the past 5 years or so, Manny has been the prohibitive favorite in Vegas’ casinos, making a bet against him risky, but worth it should it pay out. With that being the case, it was safe to assume that the casinos came away with BIG money from this decision, thus causing some to wonder just how much they influenced what goes on when it comes to scorecards. Upon closer inspection, though, if the casinos wanted to hit the jackpot on a Pacquiao fight, this wouldn’t be a good one to do it with. Whereas he was a favorite at a staggering -1000 prior to his third fight with Márquez, leading up to the tilt with Bradley he was only at -480 due to a combination of factors which included Manny’s poor showing in November and Bradley’s youth and potential. Besides, casinos win huge sums of money on big fights anyway, so the possibility of their tampering with scores, though quite possible, is slim.
Avoid Floyd
Revenue splits, blood tests, PEDs, even jail sentences have served to block the megafight everyone has been asking for. A matchup between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao would shatter records and pour heaps of cash into numerous pockets. Problem is: one of them has to lose. In an era where draws are becoming less popular, and in which losses are magnified, defeats can prove costly, a fact that Bob Arum is well aware of. Manny Pacquiao is his cash cow, and with a loss, this revenue source would become constricted. Remember how much he protected Oscar De La Hoya? Or you can take a look at Julio César Chávez Jr’s career. In this scenario, his fighter loses, but is still seen as a winner. This result, therefore, serves two purposes: Arum can keep Manny from fighting Floyd for at least a few more months, plus he gets him a guaranteed fight for the fall that will be easy to negotiate. The problem with this notion is that it’s a bit counterproductive. It’s one of those take two steps back to take one step forward kind of things. Sure, Manny avoids Floyd and will get another fight, but now Bradley is given more sway in contract negotiations, and his demands must be met should another fight be made. Additionally, should Arum ever want to cash out and face Money, Floyd would point to this defeat to justify his own demands. So you be the judge: would Arum have Manny lose purposely?
Rematch Cash
The story writes itself: the slighted hero returns to the ring to claim what the people deem is rightfully his. The villain is booed and hissed at and the public pays to see justice do its bidding. The hero emerges victorious, vanquishing all doubts and, in effect, winning two fights in one, before either riding off into the sunset or seeking his next challenge. And the story is just an afterthought. The priority? You guessed it: money. With 24/7s to be made, commercials to be sold, motel rooms to be rented out, and tickets to be sold, not to mention Pay Per Views, betting money, etc, the second fight, though not as lucrative as the first, will still generate millions. So why not have the champ lose if he’s just going to get revenge in a few months anyway? Everyone gets paid, everyone wins. Well, except the fans. Oh, and the sport itself. But who cares, right?
Karma
No doubt, this is the most difficult to prove of all, yet it’s probably the one you’ve seen most on message boards, Twitter, forums, and the like. This retribution has to do with the decisions that spared him once and favored him twice against Juan Manuel Márquez. Though the first, a draw, can probably be forgiven, the next two are difficult to swallow. What’s worse is when you take all three into account and wonder: the judges couldn’t give Márquez the benefit of the doubt just one time? After these fights Pacquiao would simply go on to grow in stature, while Márquez, though “defeated,” garnered one thing money can’t touch: respect. So now, these “victories” have come home to roost in the form of a stunning robbery to Timothy Bradley. As humans, we’re always trying to make sense of a world that often lacks it, but one can hardly blame Pacquiao for three bad decisions. If anything, the karma belongs to the judges, not Manny who, unlike most other superstars, at least gave Márquez two more chances (and maybe a third in the future) to get in a win. As bad as those decisions may have been, they simply weren’t Pac Man’s doing. Besides, I’m sure Karma has more important things to worry about.
These is an editorial piece by José A Maldonado. This article does not reflect the opinions of Real Combat Media and it’s Editors.
José A Maldonado is a senior staff writer at punchrate.com and contributing writer for realcombatmedia.com
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I could have sworn I touched on almost every single one of these theories immediately following the fight! LOL
One thing I would retract is the statement that Oscar was protected. From 135 on up, he was anything but protected. And I think Oscar played a role in that — he simply wanted to face the best, while making maximum money. If facing Rafael Ruelas, Miguel Angel Gonzalez, Ike Quartey, Obar Carr, Felix Trinidad and Fernando Vargas is “protection”, I’d hate to see what Arum’s idea of throwing him to the wolves is.
I know Oscar formed his own promotional company in 2002, but while under Arum, he faced pretty stiff competition. In fact, while active, only Pernell Whitaker’s overall resume was superior to Oscar’s.
This is a good article that raises one point I find well-beyond interesting — Did Arum assume that a controversial loss would enable Pacquiao to grow in stature and become a more sympathetic character in the eyes of Joe Boxing Fan? Was this a move to counterbalance the recent swing in sentiment among boxing fans in favor of Mayweather’s version of events?
Carl, I like your point of being a more sympathetic character.
Boxing has been a crooked sport for
Decades now. Why do people even watch this
Overpriced, underregulated, money pit. Put these pussies in the octogon and lets see how long they last!