Darren Kevin Velasco’s 12/3/11 Boxing Predictions
By: Darren Velasco
Here is my take on this weekend’s tremendous fight schedule. Feel free to comment, agree, and disagree in the comments section below.
New York, New York
MIGUEL COTTO VS ANTONIO MARGARITO II – WBA SUPER LIGHT MIDDLEWEIGHT TITLE
Expect a motivated Miguel Angel Cotto to surprisingly avenge his loss to Antonio Margartio before hearing the official scorecards in this personal rubber match. Although the superbly lenient Steve Smoger will be the third man in the ring, a career-threatening orbital bone injury is still a career-threatening orbital bone injury even with a fight license. All of Cotto’s fights since 2004 have ended in stoppages except for the defensive-minded Joshua Clottey, Shane Mosley, and Paulie Malignaggi. Cotto’s 77% KO percentage should improve after facing Margarito who is coming off of two recent losses to Manny Pacquiao and Shane Mosley. With an exuberant Puerto Rican crowd pushing behind Miguel Cotto, expect a stoppage in Saturday’s main event. This one is going to be personal.
Bottom Line: Miguel Cotto TKO8 Antonio Margarito
BRANDON RIOS VS JOHN MURRAY – WBA LIGHTWEIGHT TITLE
Expect another spectacular performance by Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios against John Murray who is a worthy opponent. While Rios’ record remains untouched, Murray comes in with only one loss proving to be Rios’ toughest opponent to date. Brandon Rios will be clearly facing his best opponent but his skill level may be light-years ahead of the current competition that Top Rank is putting in the opposite corner. With his last 10 fights coming by way of knockout victory, don’t expect Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios to alter that spectacular trend.
Bottom Line: Brandon Rios TKO5 John Murray
*** THEN THE WEIGH-IN OCCURED ***
BRANDON RIOS VS JOHN MURRAY – WBA LIGHTWEIGHT TITLE
Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios was the clear favorite going into the weigh-in on Friday afternoon. Then the weigh-in along with disaster occurred. Most fights cannot be predicted based off of a simple weigh-in but this spectacle could not be overlooked by fight fans and critics. What was originally predicted as a TKO5 for Brandon Rios now completely swings in the opposite direction because of the condition that Rios is in. The WBA lightweight champion looked more than drained going into the weigh-in and still did not meet weight requirements. It is reported that he did not eat for 4 days prior to Friday’s weigh-in. In the opposite corner, Murray came in confident, cut, and worthy to take battle with Rios. John Murray, who is looking to avenge his loss to Kevin Mitchell, is clearly Rios’ toughest opponent to date. With poor defense and terrible condition going into the fight, it is difficult to see the same Brandon Rios that is undefeated over 28 fights.
Bottom Line: John Murray TKO8 Brandon Rios
MIKE JONES VS SEBASTIAN ANDRES LUJAN – NABO WELTERWEIGHT TITLE
If Mike Jones has not fully gained recognition as one of the rising stars in the welterweight division then Saturday’s undercard bout against Sebastian Lujan will surely highlight the Philadelphia resident’s combination of power and hand speed. Lujan, who is coming off of a 12 fight win streak, is certainly no stepping stone for Jones. Expect an offensive onslaught from both fighters with Mike Jones outclassing his way to a decision victory.
Bottom Line: Mike Jones UD12 Sebastian Andres Lujan
PAWEL WOLAK VS DELVIN RODRIGUEZ II – IBA JUNIOR MIDDLEWEIGHT TITLE
The fireworks that took place in their first meeting will more then likely not reignite for this battle between Pawel Wolak and Delvin Rodriguez. The statistics from the first fight may seem similar on the Compubox this Saturday but the feeling of the fight possibly being stopped at any moment may not be the same for this fight. In a fight that will certainly lack defense, expect Wolak to slightly edge out Rodriguez on scorecards that could go either way.
Bottom Line: Pawel Wolak SD10 Delvin Rodriguez
Anaheim, California
ABNER MARES VS JOSEPH AGBEKO II – IBF/WBC SILVER BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE
In a much awaited bout that promises to provide boxing fans(and Joseph Agbeko) with a fair fight, Abner Mares defends his new championship belts against the man who he controversially took them from. Expect the aggravated and hellbent Agbeko to enter Saturday with vengeful spirits and reckless abandon. Expect Agbeko to perform beautifully to convey a wide margin throughout the fight but only win slightly in the typical unfavorable judging. As long as Agbeko walks out with a clean decision no matter the margin on the scores, he as well as the boxing community will leave the Showtime telecast in good spirits.
Bottom Line: Joseph Agbeko MD12 Abner Mares
VIC DARCHINYAN VS ANSELMO MORENO – WBA BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE
While Vic Darchinyan has still not overcome his 2007 loss to super bantamweight king Nonito Donaire, he has still managed to slide into the #3 ranking behind Mares & Agbeko. Moreno, who is virtually undefeated, is ranked as the #4 bantamweight and is actually the titleholder for this fight. Expect Darchinyan to provide a relative upset against the WBA champion as he continues his quest towards redeeming his loss to Donaire.
Bottom Line: Vic Darchinyan TKO8 Anselmo Moreno
Helsinki, Finland
ALEXANDER POVETKIN VS CEDRIC BOSWELL – WBA HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE
Both fighters come in with spectacular records as Povetkin is undefeated and Boswell has only one loss. In an important fight for the heavyweight division, expect a surprise ending with the 42 year old coming out the victor. Expect Boswell to catch Povetkin with a surprise stoppage early in the fight.
Bottom Line: Cedric Boswell TKO5 Alexander Povetkin
ROBERT HELENIUS VS DERECK CHISORA – WBA/WBO INTERCONTINENTAL HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE
With a ton of trash talk from Chisora’s corner, Helenius looks to answer back with merely his fists. The fight should go according to plan with the taller Helenius outpointing Chisora to a unanimous decision.
Bottom Line: Robert Helenius UD12 Dereck Chisora
JHONNY GONZALES VS ROINET CABALLERO – WBC FEATHERWEIGHT TITLE
Mexico City, Mexico
Jhonny Gonzales has been considered down and out numerous times over his career but at this point in his growing history he is defending his WBC featherweight championship for the third time. Gonzales, 30 years old, has lost numerous big fights to the likes of Gerry Penalosa, Toshiaki Nishioka, and Israel Vasquez but luckily Roinet Caballero is the one opposite him this Saturday. Gonzales faces a fighter who is coming off of three straight 8-round fights without much buzz at all. Look for the WBC champion to retain his title in early stoppage fashion.
Bottom Line: Jhonny Gonzales TKO3 Roinet Caballero
Darren Velasco can be reached at [email protected] or tweet to/follow @Darren_Velasco.
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