Odds of a Dmitry Bivol Upset Over Canelo Alvarez at T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas
By Robert Brizel, Head Real Combat Media Boxing Correspondent
Saul Alvarez is best betting odds of -350 to win another title (bet 350 dollars U.S. to win $100 U.S.) with FanDuel, while Dmitry Bivol is a +310 underdog (bet 100 dollars to win $310 dollars) with DraftKings. Still, sports betting sources, if you do bet, do not completely consider the odds of Alvarez defeating Bivol a sure thing, and the odds could changes in the weeks and days before the bout takes place. From a boxing reporter’s perspective, the outcome seems certain to go the distance, and in Canelo’s toughest fight since Floyd, the rounds could be very close and hotly contested to the final bell from two game competitors.
World Boxing Association World Light Heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol, 19-0 with eleven knockouts, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation, by way of Tokmak, Kyrgyzstan, will soon face the ultimate challenge of his career against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, 57-1-2 with 39 knockouts, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, in the main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on May 7, 2022, coinciding with the Mexican Cinco De Mayo fiesta. Alvarez, age 31, will be going for his fortieth stoppage or knockout in a sparkling career which began in 2005, losing only to Floyd Mayweather Jr., and drawing once with Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin. Bivol, age 31, had an amateur record of 268-15 and was the 2014 Russian National Amateur Champion at 81 kilograms.
The most potential adversaries for Alvarez are: Bivol; World Boxing Council and International Boxing Federation World Light Heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev, a Russian fighting out of Montreal, Canada; 43-0 former World Boxing Organisation World Light Heavyweight champion Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez, now campaigning at light heavyweight; 25-0 former World Boxing Council World Super Middleweight champion David Benavidez; rising 18-0 New York prospect Edgar “The Chosen One” Berlanga; and the 41-1-1 International Boxing Federation World Middleweight champion Golovkin, whom most experts believe beat Canelo Alvarez in their first matchup, who would probably have to move up in weight this time for the third rubber match with Canelo.
The main factors in this 2022 megafight are direct: Bivol is faster with a longer reach, and he is on a trend now where he has won six decisions in a row. Bivol fought close to 300 amateur fights and won an Olympic Gold Medal. Canelo chose this fight because he feels he can go 12 rounds and get the decision. Bivol is not going anywhere, unlike some of Canelo’s previous opponents. Who gets the decision is a matter up to the fighter performances, the judges scoring the bout, and perhaps (or perhaps not) external political factors. Bivol has been verbally quiet in the prefight hype leading up to Cinco de Mayo and his superbout with Canelo. Unlike Caleb Plant and some others, this will be a war of ability, untainted by a war of the words.
Canelo has the edge on rounds and experience across the weight classes with Bivol, and Canelo’s international recognition virtually guarantees him the scorecards over his opponents. Bivol needs a knockout or stoppage to win, as convincing as Olexander Gvozdyk’s eleventh round finish of Adonis Stevenson in their world light heavyweight title bout in Quebec City in 2019. Bivol has to be an Andre Ward, a Bob Foster, a Matthew Saad Muhammad in their prime, capable of outmaneuvering and outboxing Canelo, while cutting off the ring and breaking him down. To this point, body has been able to execute this sort of game plan, with variations. Bivol, at 5’10”, has a 72 inch reach, a two inch height advantage, and one and a half inch reach advantage, which he must be able to use immediately and effectively with pinpoint body and head work to break down Canelo.
Canelo, on the other hand, must get inside Rocky Marciano style, cut off the ring, put phenomenal pressure on Bivol, and use his combinations and amazing hand speed to slow break Bivol down. Canelo is a finisher, and Bivol is one level above Caleb Plant, Canelo’s last championship level stoppage win in November 2021 in Las Vegas, where Canelo has a world of fight experience in the venues, a perceptive edge over Bivol in that regard.
Defense is important for both combatants. State of mind is also important, given the Russian Federation versus Ukraine ground war now in progress. Bivol has fought his last four bouts in four different countries, the last time in Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation.
The odds are Bivol will not be returning to the Russian Federation anytime in the near future, given worldwide sanctions and ban on air travel into Russian airspace until the war ends per se.
The different major sanctioning bodies have already mutually agreed not to allow WBA, WBC, WBO, IBF and IBO regional and world title bouts in the Russian Federation at present, so even if Bivol defeats Canelo, he would no longer be able to defend his World Boxing Association world title over there. Current Anti-Russian sentiment of the moment, and Coronavirus quarantine requirements, virtually confines him to the United States or maybe the United Kingdom for future bouts.
The bottom line is the American judges, even if they are not Americans, will favor Canelo in the midst of this anti-Russian sentiment. This is not the fault of Bivol. Rather, this is just where the mentality of the world is at the precise moment in time historically and emotionally.
Bivol will get a big payday for the Alvarez bout. Bivol versus Canelo Alvarez will be Canelo’s most difficult fight since Floyd. The other dominant World Light Heavyweight champion, Artur Beterbiev, could wind up in the same anti-Russian emotional predicament as Bivol if he fights Canelo in 2023. The key behind Canelo’s current mentality is Canelo unified the 168 pound super middleweight division, and will now move forward to unify the 175 pound light heavyweight division, before attempting a shot at a world cruiserweight with a catch weight, and then probably the WBC Bridgerweight division as well. Canelo versus a heavyweight will never happen, so who the Bridgerweight opponent would be a lighter weight opponent if it did happen.
Canelo gets credit for fighting regularly and against the best champions out there. Even if you are not a Canelo fan, Canelo is a fighting champion, and Bivol stands in his way. Now, if Bivol can knock Canelo out, which is possible, then it is a different story. However, Alvarez is well-seasoned and young enough at this point in his career to go the distance and get the scorecards.
Canelo is boxing’s biggest draw, along with the soon to retire Tyson Fury, and boxing is not giving up its Canelo Pay-Per-View darling just yet. Unless, of course, Bivol proves the experts wrong. The confrontation is less than two months away, and the battle between Alvarez and Bivol is bound to be an explosive winner, for as long as it lasts, or a highly technical gem. Bivol is talented, but still has quite a mountain to climb to beat boxing’s biggest box office star. Leon Spinks got a 15 round decision over Muhammad Ali in their first bout. Like Leon Spinks, Bivol will be the underdog here. The fighter who works the hardest in gym preparations and has a multifaceted game plan will win. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is predicted to win by 12 round majority decision, or Bivol by eleventh-round stoppage in an upset. The chance is unlikely any referee would stop a bout with Alvarez for the other fighter to win, given Canelo’s reputation, superstar box office draw and Pay-Per-View status. However, you never know what can happen when two fighters step into the boxing ring. Bivol’s performance, therefore, has to be phenomenal and decisive enough to win by knockout.
COMMENTS
English