UFC Fox 20 – Holm vs Shevchenko: Gambler’s Guide
By Marc Weeks, Real Combat Media MMA Correspondent
Welcome to Real Combat Media MMA’s Gambler’s Guide Edition. In addition to analysis and prediction, this article will feature information about whether or not a particular fight’s betting line has value. So many of these fights feature top caliber athletes pitted against one another, that simply stating who is going to win is basically a 50/50 shot. However, in this rendition of my articles, I will give myself fictional money and place wagers on fighters. The object being, to see how much money I can accrue by selecting the best value. I’ll start with a fictional $1000 and the more it grows the better values I am generating.
UFC on Fox 20 – Holm vs Shevchenko takes place this Saturday and it features former UFC women’s bantamweight champion, Holly Holm against Russian kickboxer, Valentina Shevchenko, in what is a number one contender’s match for Holly Holm. Unfortunately for Shevchenko, Amanda Nunes won the title at UFC 200 and recently defeated Valentina, so no title shot will be likely, even with a win. The co-main event is Muay Thai specialist Edson Barboza vs former StrikeForce champion Gilbert Melendez. Both fighters are vying for title position in the packed UFC lightweight division. A win brings each a step closer and a loss all but rules out a title shot for the next two years.
Analysis and Predictions via Real Combat Media record, 0-0.
Bankroll: 1000
Holly “The Preachers Daughter” Holm (10-1) vs Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko (12-2)
Both of these women are top level strikers and this fight will be pleasing to those who like “Rock’em Sock’em robots”. Holm is a very tall bantamweight and uses her height well. She keeps distance and picks her shots, usual firing off combinations while keeping a great defensive guard and using footwork to avoid counter strikes. This could be boring if Valentina is overly defensive becoming comfortable with losing a unanimous decision instead of being aggressive and facing a possible KO. Look for Holly to keep the distance and land more effective strikes.
Holm, via Unanimous decision.
Betting Value: The market is correct with Holly being a -205 favorite, both women are strikers but Holly is better physically and technically. I’ll bet $34 dollars to win $44, profiting $10.
Edson “Junior” Barboza (17-4) vs Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez (22-5)
The game plan is simple for Melendez: He must takedown Edson or faces a long night brutality or a short night if Edson KO’s him. Barboza is one of the best kickers in the UFC and is the only UFC fighter to have ever finished two separate opponents with kicks to the legs. Melendez, on the other hand, is a good all-around MMA fighter but doesn’t standout in any one area. Gilbert will have a difficult time, as this is a bad match-up for him. Gilbert is coming off a year suspension for banned substances and has not fought since June of 2015 since he lost by split decision to Eddie Alvarez. Inactivity may play a role in the outcome.
Barboza, via liverkick, round 1.
Betting Value: Barboza at a -220 is the correct value. I was hoping he would be a bit cheaper but I’ll bet $55 to win $25, profiting $30.
Francis Ngannou (7-1) vs Bojan Mihajlovic (10-3)
Ngannou is a physical specimen, standing 6’4” and weighting 250lbs. He looked great in his two UFC fights, which were both finishes. The UFC is allowing him to grow and he will be a top contender once he gets more polished. He will be welcoming UFC newcomer, Mihajlovic. I won’t lie, I don’t know much about Mihajlovic except that he is a 5’10” heavyweight and in the UFC, that rarely works out. What I do know is Ngannou is a beast and we will all be learning how to pronounce his name.
Ngannou, via KO, round 2.
Betting Value: Ngannou is a massive favorite; the house has made his value -650. Everybody knows he is a legit prospect. That being said, this is still a heavyweight fight and it only takes one punch to end a fight. The price tag is too high: No bet. Here’s hoping the line comes down closer to the fight time.
*Lines subject to change.
UFC FOX 20 Complete Card
Main Card (Fox)
Women’s Bantamweight Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Lightweight Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez
Heavyweight Francis Ngannou vs. Bojan Mihajlović
Women’s Strawweight Felice Herrig vs. Kailin Curran
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports One)
Bantamweight Frankie Saenz vs. Eddie Wineland
Featherweight Darren Elkins vs. Godofredo Pepey
Welterweight Kamaru Usman vs. Alexander Yakovlev
Lightweight Michel Prazeres vs. J.C. Cottrell
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Welterweight Alex Oliveira vs. James Moontasri
Welterweight Héctor Urbina vs. George Sullivan
Featherweight Jim Alers vs. Jason Knight
Heavyweight Luis Henrique vs. Dmitry Smolyakov
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