Manny Pacquiao
vs. Timothy Bradley " src="http://realcombatmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Manny-Paquiao-vs.-Timothy-Bradley-2.jpg" alt="" width="271" height="186" />5 Reasons to Believe Timothy Bradley Can Pull the Upset
By: José A. Maldonado, MFA
Boxing’s Consolation Prize. The Manny Pacquiao Sweepstakes. The Sparring Session.
Manny Pacquiao’s next bout has been called everything except a highly anticipated fight. That is because on June 9th at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, undefeated junior welterweight champ Timothy Bradley will move up to welterweight to challenge Pac-Man for his WBO title in what many consider to be a mismatch.
The fight, furthermore, is seen as a major letdown after Las Vegas’ decision to allow Floyd Mayweather Jr. to fight May 5th and his subsequent Twitter teases gave fight fans glimmers of hope that “The Big One” would finally be made. Manny’s promoter, Bob Arum, had other plans, and so we are left with this. The 33 year old Pacquiao (54-3-2-38 KOs), the top pound for pound fighter on many lists, is already a 5-1 favorite over Bradley, 28, and these odds will most likely increase in Manny’s favor as fight night draws nearer.
The Filipino Congressman consistently generates over one million Pay Per View buys, has won Fighter of the Year honors multiple times, is an eight-division world champion, and is a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer. Meanwhile, Bradley (28-0-12 KOs) has not been a very marketable fighter (as evidenced by his box office bomb against Devon Alexander at Detroit’s Silverdome), was recently accused of ducking Amir Khan (despite the unheard of offer for a 50-50 split of the UK revenue), and will have fought only 32 rounds in the 28 months leading up to this fight.
So does he stand a chance against the Fighting Pride of the Philippines? This writer thinks so. Here are five reasons why you should think twice before labeling this match a walkover for Pacquiao.
1. Bradley Is A Head of His Class
It has been well documented that Timothy Bradley carries three weapons when he enters the ring: his right hand; his left hand; and his forehead. When throwing his right cross, he has a tendency to bring his head along with it. We will probably never know whether he butts his opponents intentionally, but either way, it’s effective. In his 28 victories, in fact, at least 5 were aided by cuts from head clashes. In the state of Nevada, if an accidental foul causes the referee to stop the fight after four rounds have been completed, the winner is decided by the judges’ scorecards. This rule will no doubt help Bradley when considering that he comes out the gates faster than Pacquiao. Bradley is a super consistent puncher and he is physical and aggressive from the get-go. Pacquiao, on the other hand, usually starts slowly, using the first two rounds or so to figure out his opponents. His punch rate generally starts to go up in Round 4 or 5, sometimes later. Of course, once it goes up, he really lets his hands fly and he doesn’t slow down, but he may not even get a chance to warm up if there’s an early head butt.
Let us not forget that Pacquiao’s fight against the late Agapito Sánchez (another renowned dome denter) was stopped on cuts from a butt; and only recently, Bob Arum, used Pacquiao’s cuts suffered in his third tilt versus Márquez as an excuse for not fighting Mayweather since they “needed time to heal.” Most importantly, however, this is a fight between a right hander and a southpaw, a matchup notorious for producing accidental head butts due to the mirror image stance the fighters take, placing their heads closer to each other and making them more vulnerable to such fouls. If Bradley can use his quick start to put early rounds in the bank, this one might be over for Manny before it ever really begins.
2. Read the Odometer
Pacquiao has engaged in all out wars throughout his incredible career, among them life and death battles with Erik Morales and razor thin decisions versus Juan Manuel Márquez. He has boxed over 353 rounds in a career that began when he was only 17 years old. Compare this to Bradley who, though already 28, is relatively fresh and has only fought 194 rounds in his career. Though he has been hurt before, namely by Edner Cherry and Kendall Holt, Bradley works angles well and keeps a low center of gravity, making him a difficult target.
Pacquiao’s defense is another story. What he lacks in defensive savvy he more than makes up for in ferocity, speed, and power; yet it is no secret that he is not hard to hit. Regardless of skill, the punches a fighter receives take their toll, and their effect were particularly evident in Pacquiao’s third fight with Márquez in which he seemed unable to pull the trigger as quickly as before. Against a much heavier Antonio Margarito, Pacquiao took an awful lot of punishment despite dominating the fight. In Round 8, for instance, Pacquiao received 34 punches, the most any opponent had ever landed on him in one round. Although Bradley is not a heavy hitter, he is a fighter who likes to apply pressure and throw many body shots, a punch that Pacquiao was admittedly hurt by in the Margarito fight. If, as many suspect, Pac-Man’s abilities are eroding, Bradley is a skilled enough fighter to take advantage of Manny’s mileage and turn the fight in his favor.
3. Desert Storm Has Something to Prove
In Bradley’s fight versus Joel Casamayor, HBO’s Max Kellerman pointed out that Bradley was “fighting for street cred.” The fighter known as “Desert Storm” has repeatedly complained about not getting the big fights he feels he deserves and even went so far as to leave his promoters, Gary Shaw and Ken Thompson, in favor of Top Rank to facilitate the fight with Pacquiao. This move raised a lot of eyebrows since Shaw and Thompson were able to deliver Amir Khan for what would have been Bradley’s biggest payday by far, rumored to be around $1.8 million, including an unheard of 50-50 split of the UK revenue.
Apparently unhappy with the deal, Bradley declined the offer (a move which prompted Shaw and Thompson to sue both Bradley and his manager, Cameron Dunkin). According to Bradley, Shaw and Thompson were not doing a good job of keeping him busy, nor were they doing enough to make Bradley a household name. Whether he has earned this fight, Bradley has more or less talked himself into it, and now he must prove that he deserves to be in the spotlight. This won’t necessarily be the first time, however: prior to his first world title bout, Bradley had never fought outside of his native California, yet he traveled to then-champion Junior Witter’s backyard (England), and took his belt in a fight where he was a 6-1 underdog. This performance showed he is not afraid of the moment. The lights shine brightest in Vegas, and a victory over Pacquiao will allow Bradley to make the biggest statement of his career.
4. T-Brad Ain’t Bad
In spite of a stellar record against world class fighters in multiple weight divisions, Manny Pacquiao has been accused of ducking opponents. Even Bernard Hopkins got into the mix, claiming Manny was avoiding African American fighters. It was not too long ago, in fact, that Timothy Bradley himself was brought up in conversations regarding who Manny should, but never would, fight. People argued that Bradley was too young and skilled; that the reward/risk ratio was too slim for Manny to face him. Now that the fight has actually been made, it seems many have forgotten the reasons Pac should have avoided Desert Storm in the first place. Let’s review them: first off, Bradley is a damn good fighter.
He is a bit reminiscent of Andre Ward in that he doesn’t do one thing particularly well, but he does many things effectively. He’s an active, aggressive, physical boxer who breaks down his opponents and isn’t afraid to go to the body. Bradley, moreover, is a smart fighter who always shows up in supreme condition (for which he credits his vegan diet) and consistently lands more than his opponents. He averages about 66 punches per round, and while Manny often throws over 70 punches per round, this number is inflated when considering he threw 1,069 against Margarito and 1,231 against Clottey, opponents who were either unwilling or unable to counter. Compare this to his punches thrown against skilled fighters like Márquez and Cotto, which were 578 and 780, respectively.
In his fights against the technically sound Márquez, Pacquiao showed signs of frustration like lunging and loading up on punches, making him vulnerable to counters. Though Bradley is not quite at Márquez’ level, he is skilled enough to capitalize on these habits. Aside from the numbers, Bradley is a right hander who uses his jab effectively regardless of his opponents’ stance. This is a punch many orthodox fighters abandon versus southpaws, thus making it a punch lefties rarely have to deal with. The left jab, however, is an effective way of throwing off a southpaw’s rhythm while slowing their offense, and it is a punch Bradley used often against southpaws Devon Alexander and Casamayor.
Bradley also has a superb right cross, throwing it straight down the pipe between his opponents’ guard. This is a punch southpaws are especially vulnerable to, and because Bradley throws it right through the center, it will keep the distance between him and Manny short, thus neutralizing Pac’s great reflexes (which appear to be diminishing with age). These are all factors that should surely be cause for concern in Pac’s camp.
5. How Focused is Manny?
Manny Pacquiao is 33 years old, has made well over $100 million, won world titles in eight different weight classes, has four children, and is a congressman in the Philippines’ Sarangani province. Other than fighting Floyd Mayweather Jr., his legacy is more than secure. He has been seen on countless TV ads and talk shows, has a budding musical career, and plans to run for governor of the Sarangani province in 2013. As if this weren’t enough, he recently revealed that he vows to give up cockfighting, gambling, and womanizing, going so far as to sell his shares in a casino and nightclub, as well as getting rid of the over 1,000 roosters he owned. Although this would seem to be a reduction in his activities outside of boxing, he now has to deal with the deluge of media attention that will come from this admission.
The question is: where does Timothy Bradley stand among all this? One has to wonder, furthermore, if Pacquiao is satisfied with Bob Arum’s recent work. Manny has expressed interest in fighting Floyd on many occasions, yet Arum seems unwilling to make the fight happen, instead presenting his fighter with his infamous lists of possible opponents. Perhaps Arum is afraid of losing his cash cow if Pac-Man gets defeated, but surely Manny has to question whose interests Arum is looking out for. If Manny’s training is compromised by any of these distractions, this can open up a huge window of opportunity for the hungry Timothy Bradley.
José A. Maldonado, MFA is senior staff writer at punchrate.com and contributor to realcombatmedia.com
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COMMENTS
English
Great article except the writer is clearly a Mayweather fan who ignores the fact that Mayweather refuses to split the PPV revenue with Pac and keeps using the excuse that Pac wont take the drug test when Pac has said on numerous occasions that he would. Stop blaming Bob Arum for the fight not happening Mayweather has just as much to do with it as anyone else
Very good article with some compelling arguments to why we shouldn’t take Bradley lightly. This will make me see the fight with new eyes. Thanks.