UFC on FOX 4 Shogun vs. Vera Preview
By: Daniel Kendrick
Los Angeles, California — What a way to kick off the first weekend of August kicked off (and put the lackluster of UFC 149 behind us) by gettin’ it goin’ with another loaded card….and thanks to the Olympics, no doubt, it’s free! The UFC heads back to primetime T.V. tomorrow night with a sizzling headliner featuring 4 of the world’s premier light heavyweight contenders filling out the co-main & main event. We still have one full, solid month of summer left, boys & girls, and that means grilling, beer on ice, & weekend get togethers. What more of an excuse do you need then the UFC’s free card on FOX? That being said, as ‘Big’ John McCarthy says: “Let’s get it on!”
Welterweights Mike “Quick” Swick (14-4-0) vs. DaMarques “Darkness” Johnson (18-10-0)
Ultimate Fighter alumnist Mike “Quick” Swick puts his touted stand-up game against the ground game of Jeremy Horn & Carlos Machado protege, DaMarques “Darkness” Johnson. Johnson is needing a rebound coming off a loss to John McGuire this past April while Swick is making his Octagon return having been out due to injury. Swick also is badly in need of a ‘W’ having dropped his last 2 Octagon appearances most recently to Paulo Thiago at UFC 109 & before that to Dan Hardy at UFC 105. Both men have shown chinks in their ground game armor having both been submitted in their most recent fights. Both, however, have scored submission victories of their own. Where the big difference lies is in the standing department where Swick will have a very distinct advantage having earned his nickname’s sake on numerous occassions. Swick has shown that he can end fights instantaneously with his quick hands ala Vitor Belfort. If Johnson doesn’t score the “puncher’s chance” shot or bring Swick into his world on the ground, “darkness” could happen with Swick putting the lights out….”quick.”
Prediction: Swick by 2nd round KO
Lightweight Joe ‘J-Lau’ Lauzon (20-7-0) vs. Jamie Varner (20-6-1, 2 NC)
Moving on into the fast paced world of the lightweight division, Joe Lauzon goes head-to-head with former WEC lightweight champ and often unpopular, Jamie Varner. Submission grappler vs. wrestler most aptly categorizes this matchup with the definite edge in standup, most noteably boxing, going to Varner. However, where ‘J-Lau’ is strongest is where Varner has shown some of his biggest, if not his biggest weakness and that is in the submission game. Varner was submitted in 2 of his last 4 defeats in the WEC, one of those being to current UFC LW champ, Ben Henderson. Varner is riding a major confidence booster after his difficult road back to the cage having defeated Edson Barbosa in his last outing with a blitzing first round TKO. This is what would be ideal for Varner instead of having Lauzon get comfortable & increasing his chances to bring the fight into the tricky guard of his lengthy frame. Lauzon has shown signs of being a “front runner” with his cardio so that could also very well be to Varner’s favor if the fight happens to make it into the final round. Still, given Varner’s aptitude for scoring KO’s behind the punches that initially stun his opponents & Lauzon’s ground game ever strengthening having trained for long periods in Hilo with B.J. Penn, a finish one way or the other is the most likely outcome of this battle.
Prediction: Varner by 1st round KO/TKO
President Dana White has put the next challenger for the LHW crown after Dan Henderson gets his his shot comes down to which is the more exciting fight between this & the card’s main event. Talk about “upping the anty” for action production from what was already to be sure to be a fist pumping, seat jumping co-main & main event. Leading up to the rousing main event, ‘The Dragon’ matches his ace karate/ju jitsu/judo bag of tricks against the brute power & stellar Arizona State wrestling pedigree of ‘Darth’ Bader. Though suffering defeats at the hands of champion Jon Jones, Shogun, & Rampage (questionably in that last one), Machida remains a very confusing puzzle to solve to most of the division. Fighters know what they’re going to be in with, yet they continue to fall into the cat-and-mouse pursuit that Machida baits them into. Bader would be well served, given his particular style, to take a page from Shogun & Rampage in not chasing Machida around the cage like so many other victim’s who ate kicks and punches, but they themselves hit nothing but the surrounding air. Bader will need to heavily rely on patience to lure Machida in closer to him where he can maybe catch him with one of his heavy fists or bring the fight to the mat, which will by no means put him in a clear advantageous point, but will greatly increase his chances to do damage to the elusive former champion. Given that Bader can’t do that, it’ll be another easy sailing night of hit & not get hit for Machida as has been his M.O. in most of his UFC outings. Let’s just hope that in that case, he doesn’t pay any more homage to Steven SeaGULL…I mean, Seagall.
Prediction: Machida by unanimous decision
Main Event Light Heavyweight Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (20-6-0) vs. Brandon ‘The Truth’ Vera (12-5-0, 1 NC)
A Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt who heavily prefers to incorporate Muay Thai against a former Olympic caliber greco roman wrestler who also would much rather keep his fights in the world of Muay Thai; sounds like a fight that’s gonna be anything but dull to me, my friends. Whether it stays a striking match, which is probably a “no brainer” option, or it hits the mat, this one’s got action written all over it, at least on paper. Shogun’s coming off his “Fight of the Night” against upcoming title challenger, & Strikeforce LHW champion, Dan Henderson at UFC 139, albeit a loss and before that, his vindication win over Forrest Griffin. Vera, on the other hand, is coming off of a win against Eliot Marshall at UFC 137.
Vera is still trying to show that he’s among the top of the food chain at light heavyweight, especially since he had shown so much promise at heavyweight, although being very undersized & much better suited for the next weight class down. However, it hasn’t been quite what most expected it to be and it got even worse following Vera’s loss to Thiago Silva at UFC 125 when he was cut, but then shortly thereafter reinstated after Silva tested positive for a banned substance.
Vera is the man with his back up against the wall, still, being as that he nearly lost his place with the company & afterall, Shogun is a former light heavyweight champion, so a loss for Rua won’t be nearly as devastating for the Pride legend as it would be for Vera, unless Vera can turn this into a “Fight of the Night” candidate, in such case were he to lose, it wouldn’t be nearly as detrimental for him. Vera will need to establish distance since even though he’s got a solid pedigree in Muay Thai himself, he’s not as proficient in the clinch as Shogun is. All but one (Overeem) have felt the wrath of Shogun’s knee barrages once they find themselves locked in his ultra tight thai clinch. Shogun also has deceptively heavy hands that seem to drop opponents even when they don’t land flush & his kicks are notoriously nasty. Vera would do himself a favor by implementing a stiff jab to stunt Shogun’s kicks followed by quick, short punch combos as not only a means to do damage, but to act as a distraction so as to put Shogun on his back & make good use of short elbows; punches could overextend a limb for Shogun to attack with a submission from his arsenal of jiu jitsu black belt skills.
Vera doesn’t quite have the power of a Dan Henderson and his standup nor ground game are the equal of Shogun’s. So unless he can do something extra special or maybe pull off a flash KO, Shogun should put himself in a position to rematch whoever the winner of Jones/Henderson.
Prediction: Shogun by 3rd round TKO
Prelims on Fuel
Flyweight Ulysses ‘Useless’ Gomez (9-2-0) vs. John Moraga (10-1-0)
Featherweight Manny ‘The Anvil’ Gamburyan (13-8-0) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (13-11-1)
Heavyweight Phil De Fries (8-1-0) vs. Oli Thompson (9-3-0)
Featherweight Josh ‘The Fluke’ Grispi (14-3-0) vs. Rahni Yahya (16-7-0)
Light Heavyweight Phil ‘Mr. Wonderful’ Davis (9-1-0) vs. Wagner ‘Caldeirao’ Prado (8-0-0)
Featherweight Cole ‘Magrinho’ Miller (18-6-0) vs. Nam Phan (17-11-0)
Main Event on FOX
Welterweight Mike ‘Quick’ Swick (14-4-0) vs. DaMarques ‘Darkness’ Johnson (18-10-0)
Lightweight Joe ‘J-Lau’ Lauzon (20-7-0) vs. Jamie Varner (20-6-1, 2 NC)
Light Heavyweight Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida (17-3-0) vs. Ryan ‘Darth’ Bader (15-2-0)
Light Heavyweight Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (20-6-0) vs. Brandon ‘The Truth’ Vera (12-5-0, 1 NC)
Tomorrow night’s 3 hours of prelims can be viewed on Fuel TV immediately followed by the main card to be televised live on FOX and/or FOX Deportes. The UFC on FOX post fight show can also be viewed live following the live action on Fuel TV. 5pm/8pm PTET-Los Angeles, California.
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