UFC Vegas 123 Preview: Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Full Card, Film Study, Odds & Weigh-In Video

UFC Vegas 123 Preview: Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Full Card, Film Study, Odds & Weigh-In Video

By Real Combat Media MMA Editorial Staff

Las Vegas, Nevada, (October 31st, 2026)–UFC Vegas 123 closes out October at the Meta Apex on Halloween night with a five-round lightweight main event between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan. Moicano, 37, is a former title challenger coming off an April submission of Chris Duncan, and Nolan, 26, enters his first UFC main event on a five-fight winning streak. Randy Brown meets unbeaten late replacement Jacobe Smith in the co-main event, Yana Santos faces Luana Santos at bantamweight, and Ode’ Osbourne and Cody Durden meet at flyweight. Julian Erosa has said his featherweight fight with JeongYeong Lee will be the last of his career, and Lucia Szabova makes her UFC debut. Francis Marshall was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday, but all 12 bouts remain on the card. Below are the records and official weights for every fight, tale-of-the-tape breakdowns, film study and odds for the five-fight main card, plus the weigh-in video.

Main Event: Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan, Lightweight (5 Rounds)

Both men made weight, Moicano at 156 and Nolan at 155.5, inside the 156-pound non-title limit. It is a veteran against a riser with an 11-year age gap, and Nolan is the taller man by four inches. The line has been close all week and sits near a pick’em at some books.

Film Study, Renato Moicano: “Money” is a former lightweight title challenger and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Alex Leleco, with 11 submissions among his 21 wins plus two knockouts and eight decisions. He is also a Muay Thai black belt who throws knees and elbows in close, and he scored back-to-back TKO wins over Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner in 2024. His losses to Islam Makhachev (first-round submission in January 2025) and Beneil Dariush (decision in June 2025) came against elite wrestlers, and Dariush landed five takedowns. He bounced back in April with a second-round submission of Chris Duncan in a main event. He lands 4.10 significant strikes per minute at 49 percent accuracy, absorbs 3.55, defends 59 percent of strikes and 64 percent of takedowns, and averages 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes. Three of his seven losses came by knockout or TKO.

Film Study, Tom Nolan: “Big Train” is a 26-year-old southpaw from Brisbane, Australia who earned his contract with a first-round knockout of Bogdan Grad on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023. He lost his UFC debut to Nikolas Motta, then rebuilt with five straight wins, including first-round finishes of Charlie Campbell and Victor Martinez and a unanimous decision over Fares Ziam in June, the biggest win of his career. Five of his 11 wins have come by knockout. He lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute at 45 percent accuracy, absorbs 3.74 and defends 48 percent of strikes. He defends 58 percent of takedowns and lands 1.08 per 15 minutes at 26 percent. This is his first five-round fight.

Keys to Victory, Moicano: Take the fight to the mat early, when he is freshest and Nolan’s 58 percent takedown defense is most vulnerable. With 11 submission wins, any scramble is an opportunity, and the smaller Apex cage helps a pressuring grappler. He has to avoid trading at range with a taller southpaw, since three of his seven losses came by knockout or TKO.

Keys to Victory, Nolan: Use the height and southpaw angles to keep Moicano at the end of the jab and left hand, get back to his feet quickly in the early scrambles and make this a volume fight. Over 25 minutes, a busier, longer striker has the activity edge, and Moicano has been stopped before. He has to stay off his back in the first two rounds, where Moicano’s submission game is most dangerous.

Odds: Moicano -118 to -135, Nolan -102 to +110

Co-Main Event: Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith, Welterweight

Both men weighed 170.5, inside the 171-pound limit. Smith steps in on less than two weeks’ notice after Carlos Leal withdrew, and it is his second fight in four weeks.

Film Study, Randy Brown: “Rude Boy” is a 36-year-old welterweight from Spanish Town, Jamaica who has been in the UFC since 2016 and has hovered just outside the Top 15 for most of that run. Between 2021 and 2025 he won eight of 10, with highlight knockouts of Nicolas Dalby and Muslim Salikhov, and 13 of his 20 wins came by knockout (eight) or submission (five). He has lost three of his last four, most recently a decision to Kevin Holland at UFC 327. He lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute at 47 percent accuracy, absorbs 3.35, defends 53 percent of strikes and defends 74 percent of takedowns. He owns a five-inch height and six-inch reach advantage.

Film Study, Jacobe Smith: “Cobe” is a 30-year-old southpaw from Dallas who was a two-time NJCAA national champion and an NCAA Division I All-American at Oklahoma State. He earned his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with a second-round elbow finish of Christien Savoie and has four finishes in four UFC fights, including first-round knockouts. The latest was a first-round TKO of Bruce Whitehead at UFC 332 four weeks ago. Ten of his 13 wins are knockouts. He lands 6.91 significant strikes per minute at 67 percent accuracy, absorbs 2.77 and averages 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes at 85 percent, with a perfect 100 percent takedown defense.

Keys to Victory, Brown: Keep the fight standing and long, using the jab and kicks and circling off the fence. He has to stuff the first takedown attempts so Smith cannot find a rhythm, and his experience and chin give him a path to drag a fighter on a short camp into deeper water.

Keys to Victory, Smith: Blend the wrestling with his power and speed, get the fight to the mat early and work from top position. He has to be careful in the exchanges, because Brown has eight knockouts and a reach edge that can punish a wild entry.

Odds: Smith -220 to -300, Brown +215 to +230

Ode’ Osbourne vs Cody Durden, Flyweight

Both men made weight at 126. The two were originally booked for UFC 329 in July, but Osbourne withdrew with an injury and Durden took a replacement fight, losing to Alessandro Costa by second-round rear-naked choke. With 22 finishes between them, the UFC expects fireworks.

Film Study, Ode’ Osbourne: “The Jamaican Sensation” is a 34-year-old Las Vegas striker by way of Milwaukee with six knockout wins and a six-inch reach advantage. He is 1-2 in his last three, with the win a Performance of the Night stoppage of Luis Gurule. He lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute at 40 percent accuracy and defends 49 percent of strikes, has four UFC knockdowns and defends 66 percent of takedowns.

Film Study, Cody Durden: “Custom Made” is a 35-year-old grappler from Covington, Georgia who averages 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes and likes to make fights ugly. He is 1-5 in his last six, including the Costa loss in July. He lands 3.27 significant strikes per minute at 44 percent accuracy and defends 51 percent of strikes, and he also has six knockout wins.

Keys to Victory, Osbourne: Use the six-inch reach and quicker hands to land the first big shot, and stay off the fence so Durden cannot close the distance. A first-round finish is his cleanest path, and he has to defend early takedowns.

Keys to Victory, Durden: Shoot early and often to take away the reach and speed edge. The smaller Apex cage limits Osbourne’s movement, and a grinding, ugly fight on the mat is the best route to a decision.

Odds: Durden -110 to -125, Osbourne -102 to -120 (close to a pick’em)

Yana Santos vs Luana Santos, Women’s Bantamweight

Yana weighed 135.5 and Luana 136, both inside the 136-pound limit. Both women are on three-fight winning streaks, and the winner is in position for a ranked push as the division prepares for Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes at UFC 334.

Film Study, Yana Santos: The 36-year-old Russian-born veteran trains in Florida and returns after a layoff of more than a year due to injury. She is comfortable in clinch-heavy fights and has seven knockouts among her 17 wins, though she has not scored a finish in the UFC. Her three-fight streak includes a win over former champion Miesha Tate, and two of her last three opponents missed weight.

Film Study, Luana Santos: The 26-year-old from Sao Paulo has a judo background and the cleaner overall skill set, with five submissions and one knockout among her 11 wins. She has climbed the rankings with wins over Karol Rosa, Melissa Croden and Tainara Lisboa, whom she stopped in the second round, and she has shown a tendency to wrestle her way to decisions against better competition.

Keys to Victory, Yana: Use the inch and a half of reach and her clinch experience, keep the fight standing and drag Luana into a grinding, physical fight where her experience matters. Ring rust is the question after the layoff.

Keys to Victory, Luana: Mix striking with her judo and takedowns, control position and win rounds without forcing the action. She does not need a finish to win this fight.

Odds: Luana -270 to -330, Yana +180 to +240

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov, Welterweight

Lebosnoyani weighed 170.5 and Hasanov 171. The fight opens the main card and pits a perfect UFC record against an unbeaten pro record.

Film Study, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: “Mufasa” is a 27-year-old Las Vegas welterweight who earned his contract on Season 9 of Dana White’s Contender Series and has won both UFC fights by decision, over Phil Rowe and SeokHyeon Ko. Seven of his 11 wins are submissions. He lands 4.14 significant strikes per minute at 46 percent accuracy, absorbs 4.0 and defends 57 percent of strikes, and he averages 2.89 takedowns and 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Film Study, Farman Hasanov: “The Lion” is a 31-year-old wrestler from Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan who trains at American Top Team. He made his UFC debut in Baku this summer with a win over Eric Nolan. He drags opponents down and grinds with ground and pound, and he has an overhand right. His striking volume is low at 1.40 significant strikes per minute, but he connects at 51 percent and defends 70 percent of strikes, with 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Keys to Victory, Lebosnoyani: Use the higher output and the submission game to win the grappling exchanges, and keep the fight in open space where his volume matters. He should stay active off his back if Hasanov gets on top.

Keys to Victory, Hasanov: Close the distance with the overhand right and wrestle early, then use the two-inch reach edge to defend on the feet. The unbeaten record has not been tested against this level.

Odds: Lebosnoyani -280 to -345, Hasanov +230 to +250

Full Card Records and Weights

Records listed first, official Friday weigh-in weights in parentheses (pounds).

Main Card (Paramount+, 8 p.m. ET)
Renato Moicano, 21-7-1 (156) vs. Tom Nolan, 11-1 (155.5)
Randy Brown, 20-8 (170.5) vs. Jacobe Smith, 13-0 (170.5)
Ode’ Osbourne, 13-9, 2 NC (126) vs. Cody Durden, 18-11-1 (126)
Yana Santos, 17-8, 1 NC (135.5) vs. Luana Santos, 11-2 (136)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, 11-2 (170.5) vs. Farman Hasanov, 6-0 (171)

Preliminary Card (Paramount+, 5 p.m. ET)
Francis Marshall, 10-3 (148)* vs. Dakota Hope, 11-2 (145.5)
Rodrigo Sezinando, 9-2 (170.5) vs. Theodor Berggren, 8-4 (171)
Julian Erosa, 31-14 (145.5) vs. JeongYeong Lee, 11-3 (145.5)
Zachary Reese, 10-4, 1 NC (185) vs. Mickey Gall, 7-7 (185.5)
Nick Klein, 6-3 (186) vs. Joe Kropschot, 9-3 (186)
Talita Alencar, 8-1-1 (116) vs. Piera Rodriguez, 12-2 (115.5)
Lucia Szabova, 10-0 (125.5) vs. Tainara Lisboa, 7-4 (125)

*Marshall missed the 146-pound featherweight limit by two pounds and forfeits 20 percent of his purse to Hope. The bout proceeds as scheduled.

Watch

UFC Vegas 123 Weigh-In Video: Moicano vs. Nolan Official Weigh-In and Faceoffs

Odds are approximate ranges compiled from multiple sportsbooks and are subject to change. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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